Reassessing my 2023 MLB predictions at the halfway point
Not great!
Most teams are at or right around 81 games played out of 162, so it’s time to take a step back and evaluate the first half of the campaign.
What better way to do that than look back at my preseason predictions to see just how wrong I was about pretty much everything? It’s a tradition at this point, but I don’t even mind being extremely wrong year after year. I’d rather the sport be unpredictable and chaotic. That’s part of the fun.
Below, we’ll take a look back at my 2023 division standings and end-of-season award predictions and see how they match up with how the league looks at the halfway point.
AL East
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Current standings
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
I figured the AL East would be among the league’s most competitive divisions. The Orioles were coming off a surprisingly successful season, but I had doubts about whether they could sustain that success with what appeared to be a lackluster pitching staff. So far, they’ve proven me wrong. They’re legit.
I also totally overestimated the Blue Jays once again. It’ll be the last time I pick them to do anything special until their performance matches the talent level on the roster. And the Rays? No one expected them to be THIS good.
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Current standings
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
No teams in the AL Central currently have a winning record, so it’s a total crapshoot. It’s no surprise to see the Twins and Guardians fighting for the top spot. The rest of the division is trash, though the Tigers are only five games back despite being 11 games under .500.
AL West
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
Current standings
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
I, along with many other baseball enthusiasts, got caught up in the Mariners hype heading into this season. They were fun as hell in 2022 with AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez leading to their first postseason berth since 2001. But this year, they’re one of the most disappointing teams in the league.
Instead, it’s the Rangers stepping up as the top dog in the AL West through the first half of the campaign. I guess I shouldn’t be all that surprised considering they overhauled their pitching staff during the offseason, but it’s still pretty damn impressive what they’ve accomplished without Jacob deGrom leading the rotation. Nathan Eovaldi is in the Cy Young conversation and the rest of that starting five has been outstanding. We’ll see whether they can hold off the reigning World Series champs for another 81 games.
NL East
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
Current standings
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
The Mets are another club that can be thrown into the “most disappointing” discussion. They’re just 36-44 despite spending nearly $500 million during the offseason.
I picked the Marlins as one of my teams that would exceed expectations and they’ve done exactly that. They'll flirt with a playoff spot, but this is the Braves’ division to lose.
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
Current standings
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
Need more proof that baseball is unpredictable? Look no further than the NL Central. The Cincinnati Reds were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball after a dismal 2022 season and have turned out to probably be the most exciting club to watch.
Only five games separate Cincinnati from the fourth-place Pirates, and the Cardinals have gone from division champs to the biggest letdown of the first half. The top four teams in the division could be buyers at the deadline if they keep up this pace.
NL West
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Current standings
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
The Padres join the Mariners, Mets, and Cardinals as the most disappointing teams of the first half. They’re stacked with talent, yet are near the bottom of the league in every major offensive category.
Arizona has backed up my preseason hype with a sensational first half led by a Cy Young-caliber 1-2 punch of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, plus NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Corbin Carroll and offseason addition Lourdes Gurriel. The Giants, who I entered the season with zero expectations for, recently put together a 10-game win streak to put them right behind the division-leading D’backs. It’ll be fascinating to see how the NL West unfolds over the second half.
Awards
AL MVP - Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
Rodriguez is going through a sophomore slump. The 2022 AL Rookie of the Year is hitting .241 with a .720 OPS through 76 games. He’ll win an MVP one day, but this isn’t looking like the year.
NL MVP - Trea Turner, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
After watching what Turner did in the World Baseball Classic, I was convinced this would be his year to take home the MVP award. He seemed like the perfect fit in Philly and all signs pointed toward a monster season. Instead, he’s slashing .246/.302/.382 with eight homers in 78 games. Wrong again.
AL Cy Young - Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Oof! Manoah was demoted to the Florida Complex League (rookie ball) to fix whatever he’s going through after a disastrous start to the campaign. He then allowed 11 earned runs on 10 hits in 2.2 innings in his first FCL start. Another great pick, Justin! Keep up the good work!
NL Cy Young - Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Here’s one that could make up for that Manoah pick. Gallen is 10-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 104.1 innings (17 starts) this season. Coming off a fifth-place Cy Young finish in 2022, he leads the NL with a 2.72 FIP.
AL Rookie of the Year - Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
As you can see, these picks are not fun for me to look back on. Volpe is going through some serious growing pains. The 22-year-old shortstop is hitting just .2038 with a .658 OPS in 80 games. His speed on the basepaths (16 steals) has been a nice addition to the lineup, but that doesn’t matter much when he can’t get on base to begin with.
NL Rookie of the Year - Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll seems like the slam-dunk pick for NL Rookie of the Year unless he struggles in the second half while Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz goes off. The 22-year-old could even earn a fair share of MVP votes if he keeps up this pace. In 77 games, he’s hitting .292/.369/.563 with 17 homers and 24 stolen bases. Stud.
AL Manager of the Year - Scott Servais, Seattle Mariners
Not happening.
NL Manager of the Year - Torey Lovullo, Arizona Diamondbacks
There go the D’backs making me look smart again!
AL Comeback Player of the Year - Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
Between his poor performance, injuries, and his altercation with an A’s fan, I’d say Rendon is out of the running for this one.
NL Comeback Player of the Year - Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, San Diego Padres
This just depends on how voters look at the whole steroids thing. Tatis is the obvious pick when you consider his performance and how he missed the entire 2022 season due to injuries and his suspension.
Thanks for reading! Remember to subscribe (FREE!) if you haven’t already below.