2023 MLB Standings Predictions: NL Central
Will anyone challenge the Cardinals for the top spot?
We’re almost there! Six days from now, all 30 MLB clubs will take the field for Opening Day.
We’ve got two more divisions to cover before the fun begins: the NL Central and NL West. We’ll predict the Central standings today and finish up with the West early next week. If you missed the other division standings predictions, you can check them out below.
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The National League Central, at least on paper, is pretty straightforward. The St. Louis Cardinals are by far the most talented team in the division. The Milwaukee Brewers, led by co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, remain a playoff contender. The Chicago Cubs look to take a step forward after making some interesting offseason moves. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are the clear bottom dwellers in the division yet again.
Here’s how I see the division looking after 162 games.
1. St. Louis Cardinals (95-67)
2022 result: 93-69, first in NL Central, lost to Phillies in Wild Card Series (2-0)
The Cardinals are built to win a World Series. They had their hopes dashed by the reigning NL champion Phillies last year, but there’s no reason to believe they can’t make a deeper run in 2023.
While it was a quiet offseason in St. Louis, the club did make one blockbuster move with the signing of All-Star catcher Willson Contreras to a five-year, $87.5 million contract. He’ll replace the great Yadier Molina behind the plate and add power to the lineup behind Nolan Arenado and 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt.
It’s a deep lineup with that trio in the middle plus speedster/Gold Glover Tommy Edman, 2021 eighth-place NL MVP finisher Tyler O’Neil, third-place NL Rookie of the Year Brendan Donovan, and breakout slugger Lars Nootbaar. If rookie Jordan Walker makes the roster, he could be a game-changer if his spring production carries into the regular season. It’s just a matter of finding the right spot for him on the 26-man.
The starting rotation won’t scare anyone, but it’s a solid group that should improve over last season. Veteran righty Adam Wainwright, fresh off a solid showing with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, once again leads the way in what could be his final MLB season. Miles Mikolas — my DARK-HORSE NL Cy Young pick — follows with Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, and Jack Flaherty behind him. A full season from Montgomery should bring a boost, and bounce-back seasons from Matz and Flaherty are crucial.
The bullpen is in great hands with Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos at the back end. Overall, the Cardinals are a no-brainer for the No. 1 spot in the NL Central.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
2022 result: 86-76, second in NL Central, missed postseason
The Brewers missed the postseason last year for the first time since 2017. They should be in the playoff hunt again this season, but they will need just about everything to go right to compete with the Cardinals in the division.
It all starts with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff atop the rotation. Freddy Peralta and Eric Lauer are no slouches either, and veteran southpaw Wade Miley was signed during the offseason to shore up the group. The only question mark is Burnes’ future with the organization as he said his relationship with the club was “definitely hurt” during the arbitration process. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him moved at the trade deadline if Milwaukee struggles in the first half.
The lineup is anchored by shortstop Willy Adames, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich. Second baseman Kolten Wong and right fielder Hunter Renfroe were moved during the offseason, leaving gaping holes at their positions. William Contreras, acquired in the three-team Sean Murphy trade with the Braves and A’s, should provide some pop at catcher.
Devin Williams, one of the best relievers in the game, will resume his role as the full-time closer in Josh Hader’s absence. Outfield prospects Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick could make an impact with the big-league club in 2023. If they flourish and the offense treads water while the rotation stays healthy, the Brewers could sneak into a Wild Card spot.
3. Chicago Cubs (78-84)
2022 result: 74-88, third in NL Central, missed postseason
The Cubs made it clear they aren’t interested in a full rebuild by signing star shortstop Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million deal in free agency. Swanson will form one of the best defensive middle infields in the league alongside second baseman Nico Hoerner. The other two infield spots are a cause for concern.
Veteran Eric Hosmer was signed as a stop-gap first baseman but offers little value at this point in his successful career. Trey Mancini was signed during the offseason as well and can fill in at first, but he’ll primarily DH.
Third base is another giant question mark. It’ll likely be either Patrick Wisdom or Nick Madrigal starting at the hot corner on Opening Day, and they could platoon, but the lack of an everyday third baseman is less than ideal.
Other intriguing offseason signings include former NL MVP Cody Bellinger and right-hander Jameson Taillon. A bounce-back season for Bellinger would make an enormous difference for a Cubs lineup that leaves plenty to be desired on paper.
I’d be surprised if the Cubs battled for a playoff spot, but crazier things have happened.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90)
2022 result: 62-100, fifth in NL Central, missed postseason
I’m not crazy enough to think the Pirates will be a winning team in 2023. However, I do think they made some pretty solid offseason additions that should set them on the right track, or at the very least make them watchable.
Pittsburgh made a concerted effort to bring in veterans who can serve as leaders for the young roster while improving the product on the field. For instance, former MVP Andrew McCutchen is back in the fold on a one-year deal. That’ll be enough to fire up the fans at PNC Park, but Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi also were signed to balance out the lineup and 43-year-old Rich Hill will join the rotation.
While those names will help the Pirates improve over their 100-loss 2022 season, the real reason to watch them in 2023 is their young talent. Six-foot-7 shortstop Oneil Cruz is a freak of nature who hits the ball harder than anyone in the sport and matches that velo with his throws to first base. The plate discipline is an issue, but he’s a strong candidate for a breakout year if he takes a step forward in that area.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is a stellar defensive third baseman but needs to figure it out at the plate. Bryan Reynolds, who requested a trade earlier in the offseason but apparently will stay put for now, remains the best player on the roster. We’ll see how long that lasts.
With a promising young core and a handful of veterans to lead the way, the Pirates will be better than many expect them to be this season. Give them another year or two for their collection of top prospects to develop and they will start to make some noise.
5. Cincinnati Reds (64-98)
2022 result: 62-100, fourth in NL Central, missed postseason
If you need a reason to watch the Reds in 2023, I’ll give you a couple: Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Both pitchers are entering their second season after promising rookie campaigns.
Greene boasts an electric 100+ mph fastball and is a strikeout machine when he’s on, but he’ll look to find more consistency this year. Lodolo looked like the ace of the staff at points last season but will look to improve his command this time around. If both young guns play to their potential, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them on the mound in the Midsummer Classic.
Otherwise, there isn’t a ton to be excited about in Cincinnati just yet. Joey Votto will be a joy to watch as always and this could be his final season with the Reds. A full season of Tyler Stephenson could establish the 26-year-old as one of the best hitting catchers in the sport. 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India will look to bounce back after a disappointing 2022 plagued by injuries. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz, the No. 4 prospect in MLB, hopefully will debut and show off his star potential at some point.
It’ll be another year in the cellar for the Reds. But with De La Cruz and other exciting prospects in the pipeline, better seasons should be ahead.