2023 MLB Standings Predictions: AL East
Prediction SZN is underway! We begin in the always-competitive American League East.
Over the next two-and-a-half weeks, I’ll be sharing my predictions for the 2023 MLB division standings, the postseason, and end-of-season awards. We’ll cover the American League this week, the National League next week, then playoffs and awards in the days just before Opening Day on March 30.
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We begin in the American League East, which should once again be one of the most compelling divisions in baseball. The New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, and Tampa Bay Rays each made the postseason in 2022 and are set up to do the same this year. The Baltimore Orioles exceeded everyone’s expectations and will look to take another step forward with their young talent. The Boston Red Sox have a chip on their shoulder after their last-place finish and could silence some doubters with their new-look roster.
There are so many potential outcomes in this division, but here’s what I see when I break out my crystal ball.
1. Toronto Blue Jays (95-67)
2022 result: 92-70, second in AL East, lost to Mariners in Wild Card series (2-0)
This time last year, I picked the Blue Jays to win the World Series. They were a popular pick because of their loaded lineup and a pitching staff that added ace Kevin Gausman during the offseason. Considering those high expectations, their 2022 season was a major disappointment.
Toronto still has World Series aspirations for 2023. It made a serious effort to improve this winter with notable additions to both the lineup and the pitching staff. Chris Bassitt fortifies a high-upside rotation that also consists of Gausman, Alek Manoah, and Jose Berrios. Yusei Kikuchi needs to improve as the No. 5 starter, but Hyun-Jin Ryu could be back from Tommy John rehab sometime midseason.
The Blue Jays offense remains stacked with Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Matt Chapman anchoring the lineup. Losing Teoscar Hernandez might sting, but the outfield defense is going to be exceptional with Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier joining Springer.
Toronto’s success could once again come down to the performance of its bullpen. A lack of depth in that area proved costly last season, which explains why it felt the need to trade Hernandez to Seattle for reliever Erik Swanson. It’s a talented group with Swanson, Jordan Romano, Adam Cimber, and Yimi Garcia set to get most of the high-leverage work. Tim Mayza and Anthony Bass are no slouches either, and ex-Yankees reliever Chad Green is set to join the mix later on in the campaign.
This is an extremely balanced club on paper and there’s no excuse to not make a deep postseason run.
2. New York Yankees (93-69)
2022 result: 99-63, first in AL East, lost to Astros in ALCS (4-0)
The Yankees dominated the 2022 regular season only to run into a freight train in the ALCS. It was a fun season between the 99 wins and Aaron Judge setting the AL home run record, but a 13-year World Series drought is no bueno in the Bronx.
New York should be back in the mix this season. Judge is back on a nine-year, $360 million deal, Anthony Rizzo also re-signed, and ace Carlos Rodon will form one of the scariest 1-2 punches in baseball alongside Gerrit Cole. But despite what appears to be a World Series-caliber roster, there are some major question marks.
Rodon is already dealing with a forearm issue that will put him on the injured list to start the season. Also injured are outfielder Harrison Bader and relievers Tommy Kahnle and Lou Trevino. Nestor Cortes, who’s coming off a breakout 2022 season, sustained a hamstring strain earlier in spring training. There’s a chance these injuries aren’t a factor long-term, but the fact they’re already piling up seems like a bad omen.
The other glaring issue resides at shortstop. Isiah Kiner-Falefa was awful in 2022. Top prospects Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe should take over at some point this year but until they prove themselves in The Show, the position is a serious weakness.
The Yankees should cruise to another playoff berth if their stars — Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Gerrit Cole — are healthy and productive. That said, they could take a step back from last season if Rodon, Cortes, closer Clay Holmes, and All-Star catcher Jose Trevino regress.
I’m not as high on this Yankees group as most, but I still could see them making another deep playoff push.
3. Tampa Bay Rays (89-73)
2022 result: 86-76, third in AL East, lost to Guardians in Wild Card series (2-0)
By now, no one is sleeping on the Rays. If you are, you haven’t been paying attention to the last several seasons. Go back to bed.
Tampa Bay has found a way to be a perennial playoff contender despite a payroll that ranks near the bottom of the league. Last season ended unceremoniously in the Wild Card round, but there is reason to believe the Rays will be even better in 2023.
First and foremost, 22-year-old star shortstop Wander Franco is healthy heading into the new campaign. They could also get right-hander Tyler Glasnow back at the top of the rotation for most of the season, though he’s currently dealing with an oblique injury that will sideline him for a while.
Slugging second baseman Brandon Lowe should also be back at full strength after an injury-plagued season. Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Isaac Paredes might not be household names, but they’ll certainly make their presence felt in the Rays’ underrated lineup.
Even with Glasnow out, pitching is the Rays’ biggest strength. Shane McClanahan returns to anchor the staff after a Cy Young-caliber 2022. Zach Eflin signed a three-year, $40 million deal in the offseason to mark the largest free-agent contract in Rays history. Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs are criminally underrated arms who amassed ERAs under 3.00 last year. The bullpen is deep with Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam holding down the back end.
Tampa Bay might not win the competitive ultra-competitive AL East, but this isn’t a club you want to face in a playoff series.
4. Boston Red Sox (83-79)
2022 result: 78-84, fifth in AL East , missed postseason
The Red Sox are coming off a last-place season that was topped off by the departure of homegrown shortstop Xander Bogaerts in December. Fans showed their frustration with the front office by loudly booing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and owner John Henry during Winter Weekend. Needless to say, the level of optimism surrounding the club for 2023 is stunningly low.
There are reasons to be positive, but we’ll start on the negative side. Trevor Story, who was supposed to replace Bogaerts at shortstop, will miss most of the season after undergoing elbow surgery. That forced Kiké Hernandez to move to short and former Braves slugger Adam Duvall was signed to fill the void left in center field.
Then there’s the injury-prone pitching staff. Chris Sale — while he’s looked great so far this spring — has made only 11 starts since the end of 2019. James Paxton has made only six in that span and is already dealing with a hamstring issue. Brayan Bello was shut down from throwing due to forearm soreness. Garrett Whitlock, who’s converting from a relief role, is still recovering from hip surgery and is likely to miss Opening Day. Corey Kluber turns 37 in April and although he was solid last year in Tampa, he has a recent injury history of his own.
So yeah, plenty to be concerned about and the pessimism is understandable. But what if I told you this is a team that could still sneak into the playoffs?
Obviously, a ton needs to go right for that to happen. The starting rotation needs to stay healthy. Masataka Yoshida needs to prove he’s worth his five-year, $90 million contract. Justin Turner needs to replicate or exceed the production J.D. Martinez provided in the DH spot last season. Duvall has to stay healthy and add thump to the lineup. Rafael Devers needs to have an MVP-caliber season.
That’s asking a lot, but it isn’t impossible. Plus, the bullpen has been completely revamped. Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodriguez should help to fix what was a major issue for the club in 2022.
It’s a team filled with “what ifs.” If those “what ifs” come to fruition, that third Wild Card spot could be in play.
5. Baltimore Orioles (79-83)
2022 result: 83-79, fourth in AL East, missed postseason
The Orioles’ breakout season came early. Oddsmakers set their win total at 62.5 ahead of the 2022 campaign. They blew past that mark and even flirted with a postseason berth.
The question is whether they’ll regress to the mean or take another step forward in 2023. To accomplish the latter, they will lean heavily on the young talent already on the roster. Full seasons from second-year catcher Adley Rutschman and rookie infielder Gunnar Henderson will help, but the lack of offseason activity from the front office after such an encouraging season was disappointing.
Baltimore’s only significant (if you want to call them that) offseason additions were second baseman Adam Frazier, starters Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson, and backup catcher James McCann. Those acquisitions serve as replacements rather than legitimate upgrades.
The O’s might compete for a playoff spot again this year, but their inability to make any blockbuster moves over the winter will prevent them from making another leap in such a tough division.