2023 MLB Standings Predictions: NL East
Which of the three powerhouses in the division will prevail?
Now that we’ve covered the entire American League, it’s time to shift our attention to the Senior Circuit.
We’ll begin the National League predictions in the East, where three teams made the postseason last year, two won more than 100 games, and one made it to the World Series. We could see a similar result from those three powerhouses in 2023.
Before we jump into the NL predictions, here are the AL ones you may have missed:
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OK, let’s get into it.
The National League East should be a dogfight. The Atlanta Braves look to repeat as division champs and make it further in the postseason this time around. The New York Mets will look to do the same after winning 101 games and falling in the Wild Card Series. Coming off a surprising World Series berth, the Philadelphia Phillies are built to finish the job in 2023. The Miami Marlins could qualify as a sleeper team with their young talent and formidable pitching staff. The Washington Nationals are in the midst of a rebuild.
How will the standings look come October? Here’s my attempt at answering that question.
1. Atlanta Braves (100-62)
2022 result: 101-61, first in NL East, lost to Phillies in NLDS (3-1)
A spectacular season for the 2021 World Series champs ended in disappointment as they were beaten by the eventual NL champion Phillies in the NLDS. Fortunately for them, they’re positioned to be one of the best teams in baseball again in 2023.
You have to squint pretty hard to find a weakness on the Braves roster. The lineup is loaded, the rotation is stacked from 1 to 5, and the bullpen is elite. I suppose the shortstop position could be considered a weak spot with Dansby Swanson headed to Chicago, but I don’t see that as an issue that will keep Atlanta from its sixth consecutive division title. For now, it looks like it’ll be 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom taking over for Swanson at short.
The Braves won 101 games last season despite a rusty Ronald Acuña Jr. coming off ACL surgery and Ozzie Albies missing most of the year due to injury. NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II helped the cause with his .853 OPS and sensational defense. Atlanta also had the NL ROTY runner-up in right-hander Spencer Strider, who posted a 2.67 ERA with 202 strikeouts in 131.2 innings.
Both of those budding superstars will play a significant role in the team’s 2023 success. Throw in a full season of a healthy Acuña and Albies, plus the addition of star catcher Sean Murphy, and I wouldn’t rule out the Braves exceeding last year’s win total. This is the most talented MLB roster on paper heading into the new campaign.
2. New York Mets (95-67)
2022 result: 101-61, second in NL East, lost to Padres in Wild Card Series (2-1)
Mets owner Steve Cohen opened his wallet and paid about a half-billion dollars over the offseason. Among the club’s notable moves were signing ace Justin Verlander to replace Jacob deGrom, adding Japanese star pitcher Kodai Senga and southpaw Jose Quintana, re-signing outfielder Brandon Nimmo and reliever Adam Ottavino, and extending batting champ Jeff McNeil.
It was a busy, successful winter in Queens. But even with all of those signings, the biggest story of the offseason was Carlos Correa’s deal falling through. The star shortstop was set to sign a 12-year, $315 million contract, but the Mets had the same concerns about his ankle as the San Francisco Giants did when their deal fell apart. The result was Correa re-signing with the Minnesota Twins on a six-year, $200 million deal.
Losing out on Correa stung, but this Mets club is still among the favorites to win a title in 2023. McNeil, Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso are back to anchor a lineup that placed fifth in runs scored last year. The Verlander, Senga, Max Scherzer trio atop the rotation has the potential to be lethal. After them, however, it gets dicey. Carlos Carrasco and David Peterson will have to step up while Quintana misses time due to a rib injury.
The bullpen could be a strength again with Ottavino back in the mix and the addition of veteran David Robertson. Southpaw Brooks Raley also was acquired in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. However, the unit takes a major hit with Edwin Diaz’s season-ending knee injury suffered in the World Baseball Classic. Going from the best closer in baseball to a giant question mark at the back end of the ‘pen will cost the Mets at least a few wins and could be the difference between a division title and a fight for a Wild Card spot.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)
2022 result: 87-75, third in NL East, lost to Astros in World Series (4-2)
The Phillies snapped their 11-year postseason drought and exceeded everyone’s expectations by beating the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres en route to the World Series. They came up short against the Astros, but it was a remarkable run for a Philadelphia club that won’t fly under anyone’s radar in 2023.
Dave Dombrowski wasted little time addressing the team’s need for a shortstop, signing two-time All-Star Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract. That move should help to make up for Bryce Harper missing a chunk of the season due to Tommy John surgery. The rest of the fearsome World Series lineup is intact with Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins providing the pop. I also expect this to be a breakout year for former top prospect Alec Bohm.
Pitching-wise, the Phillies still have two starters who should be in the Cy Young conversation — Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Right-hander Taijuan Walker was signed as a solid No. 3 after posting a 3.49 ERA through 29 starts with the Mets. They lost relievers David Robertson, Brad Hand, and Corey Knebel in free agency but replaced them with Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, and Matt Strahm.
Poor defense and a subpar ‘pen are the weaknesses that could keep Philadelphia from competing for an NL East title, but this group should still be in the playoff conversation. I’d be surprised if the three NL East powerhouses weren’t still competing in October.
4. Miami Marlins (76-86)
2022 result: 69-93, fourth in NL East, missed postseason
A giant gap still remains between the Marlins and the top three teams in the division. The additions of 2022 AL batting champ Luis Arraez, Jean Segura, and Yuli Gurriel should bolster the offense, but they won’t be enough to go toe-to-toe with the Braves, Mets, and Phillies’ star-studded lineups. This is a club that finished 28th in runs scored last year and is bound to finish in the bottom 10 again.
Pitching is what makes Miami a possible sleeper team. Led by reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara, the rotation has extremely high upside with Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Johnny Cueto and Edward Cabrera. As much as they might miss Pablo Lopez, the lineup needed a boost and it made sense to trade the right-hander for Arraez.
It’ll be fascinating to see how the Marlins’ offseason strategy plays out. Arraez will be their primary second baseman after spending most of last year at first base. That’ll force MLB The Show 23 cover athlete Jazz Chisholm Jr. to play center field for the first time as a pro. Segura, typically a second baseman, will play at the hot corner despite playing only 24 games there in his career. Joey Wendle will be the primary shortstop and while he has experience all over the infield, he has never played shortstop full-time.
They’re sacrificing defense in hopes that their offense will take a step forward. I can’t say I blame them after last season, and there should be some improvement. But in a stacked division, and with question marks all over the roster, the odds are stacked against the Marlins in 2023.
5. Washington Nationals (62-100)
2022 result: 55-107, fifth in NL East, missed postseason
The Nats were MLB’s worst team in 2022 and we can expect a similar season as their rebuild continues. There really aren’t many bright spots on the big-league roster other than late bloomer Joey Meneses and former top prospects CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and Keibert Ruiz. Right-hander Josiah Gray, also a former top prospect, will hope his third season is the charm as he has struggled to get acclimated to the majors. First baseman Dom Smith and third baseman Jeimer Candelario were signed during the offseason and are bounce-back candidates.
Another 100+ loss season is in play for Washington. That 2019 World Series title makes it all worth it, but it’s going to be quite a while before the Nationals return to relevance.