2023 MLB Standings Predictions: NL West
Will the Padres overtake the Dodgers? Are the Diamondbacks a sleeper team?
We wrap up the 2023 division standings predictions in the National League West. If you missed any of the other five divisions, you can check ‘em out below:
AL East | AL Central | AL West | NL East | NL Central
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The NL West battle between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers should be one of the most exciting storylines of the 2023 season. As stacked as the Padres are on paper, the Dodgers remain the top dog in the division until proven otherwise.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants remain a tier or two below the Padres and Dodgers, but they have what it takes to compete for a Wild Card spot. The Colorado Rockies are still one of the worst teams in the league, despite what owner Dick Monfort would like you to think.
Here’s my final standings prediction for this year.
1. San Diego Padres (98-64)
2022 result: 89-73, second in NL West, lost to Phillies in NLCS (4-1)
If the Padres can’t win the division this year, I don’t know if I can ever pick them again. They’ve gone all in on adding talent over the last couple of years and heading into the new season, the lineup is something out of a video game.
Xander Bogaerts is San Diego’s new franchise shortstop after signing an 11-year, $280 million contract in December. That deal might not age well, but it won’t matter if the former Red Sox star can contribute to a World Series title or two in the near term.
Other additions include veteran sluggers Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz, right-hander Michael Wacha, and swingman Seth Lugo. The Padres also will get a full season of Juan Soto and an almost-full season from embattled superstar Fernando Tatis Jr, who’s set to return from his PED suspension on April 20. He missed all of 2022 due to the suspension and a broken wrist suffered in a motorcycle accident during the offseason.
Perennial MVP candidate Manny Machado won’t be leaving San Diego any time soon as the star third baseman recently signed an 11-year, $350 million extension. The club’s ace, Yu Darvish, also was locked up on a six-year, $108 million deal. He’ll anchor a solid rotation that includes former Cy Young award winner Blake Snell, All-Star righty Joe Musgrove, Wacha, and perhaps a combination of Lugo and Nick Martinez.
San Diego has spent with reckless abandon and at this point, anything less than a championship is a failure. Failing to overtake the Dodgers, who actually slashed payroll over the offseason, would be a major disappointment.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68)
2022 result: 111-51, first in NL West, lost to Padres in NLDS (3-1)
It was an unconventional winter for a Dodgers club that has spent lavishly over the last several offseasons. This time, they cut payroll and watched some of their key players walk out the door.
Two-time All-Star shortstop Trea Turner left for the Phillies in free agency. Longtime fan favorite Justin Turner signed with the Red Sox. Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger joined the Cubs after his release. Left-hander Tyler Anderson signed with the Angels after a breakout 2022 season. Andrew Heaney will be part of the Rangers’ overhauled rotation.
The players they did acquire will help fill some of those voids, but they don’t move the needle enough to maintain L.A.’s powerhouse reputation. Ex-Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez signed a one-year deal as he looks to bounce back from a down season. Infielder Miguel Rojas was acquired from the Marlins and likely will spend most of his time at shortstop with Gavin Lux out for the year due to a torn ACL. Noah Syndergaard is a low-risk, high-reward addition who could soften the losses of Anderson and Heaney.
I’m not doubting the Dodgers have enough talent to win the division yet again. There still is star power all over the roster with names like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Clayton Kershaw, and Julio Urias. A full season of Dustin May could be a huge difference-maker. But this is the first year in a long time that I’ve looked at L.A. as the clear No. 2 in the NL West.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78)
2022 result: 74-88, fourth in NL West, missed postseason
It’s a shame the Diamondbacks have to play in the NL West. They will be overshadowed by the Padres and Dodgers even if they take a massive step forward this season, which is exactly what I expect them to do.
If I had to pick one sleeper team for 2023, it’s Arizona. Its 74-88 record in 2022 won’t impress anyone but remember, that’s a 22-game improvement over its 52-110 record a year prior. With more talent on the way via offseason transactions and the farm system, I like the D’Backs’ chances of sneaking into the postseason with a Wild Card spot.
We’ll start in the lineup, where top prospect Corbin Carroll is ready to put on a show and run away (literally and figuratively) with the NL Rookie of the Year award. The speedy outfielder already provided a glimpse of his potential with an .830 OPS in 104 at-bats last season. He is ready to set the league on fire.
First baseman Christian Walker is one of the most underrated sluggers in the game. Ketel Marte was a fourth-place MVP finisher in 2019 and is a bounce-back candidate after a rocky 2022. Veteran infielder Evan Longoria, former AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and outfielder/DH Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were acquired during the offseason to add some thump to the lineup. Arizona also traded for top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno.
The rotation remains the same with Zac Gallen — my “bold” Cy Young pick that actually might not be that bold since he finished fifth in the voting last year — and Merrill Kelly as the 1-2 punch. If the Diamondbacks find themselves in contention by the trade deadline, they could look to add another quality starter as Madison Bumgarner hasn’t been able to cut it in recent years as their No. 3.
Arizona also bolstered its bullpen — its biggest weak spot in 2022 — by signing southpaw Andrew Chafin and righty Miguel Castro. With all of these upgrades, I’m not ready to say the Diamondbacks will compete with the division’s top dogs, but they will be one of the most fun teams to watch in the National League.
4. San Francisco Giants (83-79)
2022 result: 81-81, third in NL West, missed postseason
No club had a more painful offseason than the Giants. First, it was the whole “Arson Judge” saga with Jon Heyman tweeting they signed Aaron Judge when they in fact did not. Then there was signing Carlos Correa only for the star shortstop to fail his physical and eventually join the Mets… then fail that physical and re-sign with the Twins. Meanwhile, ace Carlos Rodon left in free agency for the Yankees.
San Francisco entered the offseason with the intention of landing one of the superstar free agents and instead ended up with the scraps. It compensated for losing the Judge sweepstakes by signing outfielders Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto, who have been plagued by injury recently. Of course, if they stay healthy, they should greatly improve the Giants’ outfield over what it was.
Left-hander Taylor Rogers also was signed during the offseason and will join his twin brother, Tyler, in the bullpen. Luke Jackson is in the mix after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery, but he posted a 1.98 ERA for Atlanta in 2021. Left-hander Sean Manaea and righty Ross Stripling were added to the rotation and they will do their best to make up for Rodon’s absence.
I could see the Giants improving from last season, which felt like a massive disappointment after their surprisingly stellar 2021. Not having to play so many games against the Dodgers and Padres should help. But after such a rough offseason, I think they will have to fight tooth and nail for a spot in the playoffs.
5. Colorado Rockies (66-96)
2022 result: 68-94, fifth in NL West, missed postseason
The Rockies lost nearly 100 games in 2022 and didn’t do much in the offseason to add more tallies to the win column in 2023. Outside of Kris Bryant potentially being healthy for a full season, there isn’t much to be excited about in Colorado.
Bryant will provide most of the power in a lineup that ranked among the league’s worst last season, even with the advantage of calling Coors Field home. CJ Cron, Jurickson Profar, and Ryan McMahon are the next-best offensive players. Charlie Blackmon can still hit, but his days as a perennial All-Star appear to be over.
It’s the same old subpar rotation. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland lead a group that still includes Jose Urena and Austin Gomber. Antonio Senzatela is scheduled to return from knee surgery in May. Ex-Red Sox prospect Connor Seabold, acquired during the offseason, could compete for the No. 5 spot.
The Rockies had the worst bullpen in baseball last year but should see the unit take a step in the right direction in 2023. They added Pierce Johnson, Brad Hand, and Brent Suter to the mix. Daniel Bard remains the closer and will hope his magical resurgence continues for at least another season.
Colorado has some intriguing prospects in the pipeline, including Ezequiel Tovar who already has earned a spot on the big-league roster. But for now, this is by far the worst team in the NL West and possibly the worst team in MLB.