2023 MLB Standings Predictions: AL Central
Will the Guardians dominate the division for the second straight year?
We go from one of the best divisions in baseball to one of the worst. After predicting the American League East standings, we’re on to the AL Central.
You can check out the AL East predictions here. I’ll have the AL West later this week, National League predictions next week, and award/playoff predictions right before Opening Day on March 30.
You can subscribe below to get every post in your e-mail inbox as soon as it’s published.
Thanks! Now the AL Central preview…
The Cleveland Guardians made a couple of key offseason acquisitions as they look to make another postseason run. The Minnesota Twins were among the most active teams this winter and should be competitive after a disappointing 2022. It was a less-than-stellar offseason for the Chicago White Sox, but there’s enough talent on the roster to compete for the top spot in this weak division. As for the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, it’s hard to picture them anywhere other than the bottom of the pile.
1. Cleveland Guardians (91-71)
2022 result: 92-70, first in AL Central, lost to Yankees in ALDS (3-2)
The Guardians benefitted from three breakout stars in 2022: Right-hander Triston McKenzie, second baseman Andres Gimenez, and rookie left fielder Steven Kwan. Their outstanding seasons helped Cleveland exceed expectations and come within just one win of an ALCS berth.
Coming off the encouraging campaign, the front office filled its most glaring voids at catcher with Mike Zunino and at first base with Josh Bell. Those were underrated additions that give the Guardians one of the more balanced rosters in the American League.
Bell adds pop to a lineup that still includes Gimenez, perennial MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, and another 2022 breakout player in Josh Naylor. Oscar Gonzalez should also take a step forward after an impressive rookie year.
Cleveland boasts one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball with 2020 Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber and McKenzie atop the rotation. In the bullpen, Emmanuel Clase has become arguably the best closer in baseball and James Karinchak is no slouch either at the back end.
While there’s a chance last year’s breakout stars regress, this roster is built to bring home another division title in 2023 and make it even further in the postseason.
2. Minnesota Twins (84-78)
2022 result: 78-84, third in AL Central, missed postseason
The Twins were one of the bigger disappointments of the 2022 season. They entered the year with high hopes after signing star shortstop Carlos Correa but finished with a losing record. Now, after an eventful winter, anything less than a playoff berth would be a failure in 2023.
Correa’s return was a huge win for Minnesota. Failed physicals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets led to him re-signing with the Twins on a six-year, $200 million contract. Of course, the two-time All-Star’s health will be a storyline all season long as the Giants and Mets clearly weren’t thrilled about the state of his ankle.
The Twins also signed catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielder Joey Gallo in addition to acquiring center fielder Michael A. Taylor from the Royals and right-hander Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins. Donovan Solano was added as a depth piece for the infield.
This roster looks like one that can battle for the AL Central title. If it does, it’ll be because the pitching staff takes a significant step in the right direction. Lopez isn’t an ace, but he’s a rock-solid addition to a rotation that consists of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle. Throw in exciting bullpen arms Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez, and this is a high-upside group.
3. Chicago White Sox (79-83)
2022 result: 81-81, second in AL Central, missed postseason
The offseason wasn’t as kind to the White Sox as it was to its division rivals. They watched veteran slugger Jose Abreu leave for the Astros in free agency and didn’t make many impactful moves to counter the Guardians and Twins.
Outfielder Andrew Benintendi and right-hander Mike Clevinger were Chicago’s big signings of the winter. While they’re solid additions, neither move the needle enough to suddenly turn the White Sox into a contender.
The keys to a successful 2023 are Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert staying healthy and Yasmani Grandal bouncing back after a rough season. They will also need Andrew Vaughn to step up as he takes over for Abreu at first base, his natural position.
Dylan Cease will need to have another Cy Young-caliber campaign while Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito return to form as dominant starters. Clevinger staying healthy and producing the way he did in Cleveland would bring a significant boost as well.
Injuries and a lack of depth to compensate for those injuries could be the White Sox’ demise again in 2023. If they by some miracle manage to stay healthy, they should exceed most of their modest projections.
4. Kansas City Royals (72-90)
2022 result: 65-97, fifth in AL Central, missed postseason
The Royals aren’t expected to make much noise this season as their rebuild continues. That said, they’re still a club worth keeping tabs on in 2023.
If you enjoy watching young talent — and who doesn’t? — Kansas City should be one of your top teams on MLB TV. Bobby Witt Jr. showcased his stud potential as a rookie and Vinnie “Italian Breakfast” Pasquantino is the rare power threat who walks more than he strikes out. Former top pick Nate Eaton and Michael Massey could also make their presence felt in a lineup still anchored by veteran catcher Sal Perez.
The pitching staff isn’t as exciting. Brady Singer leads a rotation that brought back veteran Zack Greinke and added Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough. That group doesn’t inspire much confidence and it’s why the Royals are more likely to be a cellar dweller than a sleeper team this year.
5. Detroit Tigers (71-91)
2022 result: 66-96, fourth in AL Central, missed postseason
Just about nothing went right for the Tigers last season. Offseason signing Eduardo Rodriguez left the team due to personal reasons after just eight starts, Javier Baez was a tremendous disappointment, Spencer Torkelson experienced serious growing pains as a rookie, Austin Meadows was hurt for most of the year, and young starters Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal underwent major arm surgeries.
So how does Detroit bounce back?
It’s simple. E-Rod, Baez, and Torkelson need to play to their potential. Even a mediocre season from the trio would be an improvement over what transpired in 2022. The rest of the issues on the roster aren’t such an easy fix. Mize, Skubal, and Spencer Turnbull will start the season on the injured list. It’ll be on Matt Manning, Michael Lorenzen, and Matthew Boyd to pick up the slack.
Even if they do, the bullpen is another area of concern. The Tigers traded Gregory Soto to the Phillies for Matt Vierling and Nick Maton, then lost Andrew Chafin and Michael Fulmer in free agency. Vierling and Maton could be key pieces in the lineup, but losing those relievers will be costly.
Detroit and Kansas City will battle for fourth place again in 2023. But if you want a reason to watch the Tigers this season, remember that this could be the last we see of the great Miguel Cabrera. Enjoy Miggy while you still can.