Five MLB teams will exceed expectations in 2023
You might to bet the over on these projected win totals.
For some MLB clubs and fanbases, spring training is the best time of year. It represents a clean slate. Even the teams that finished at the bottom of their division can convince themselves that maybe, if all goes according to plan, things will be different.
Almost every MLB team is holding onto hope that 2023 will be a special season in some form or fashion. Sure, some still aren’t ready to contend for a division crown or even a playoff berth, but this year can serve as a stepping stone to long-term success. It’s all about beating expectations and proving that you’re on an upward trajectory.
The Baltimore Orioles were the perfect example of this in 2022. Sportsbooks set their win total over/under at 62.5 before Opening Day. That wasn’t surprising given their 52-110 record in 2021, but they made it look foolish by winning 83 games and flirting with a postseason spot. Now, loaded with young talent, they’ll look to prove their successful campaign wasn’t a fluke.
So which clubs will exceed expectations in 2023? Below are five teams with projected win totals I’d consider betting the over on.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Win total over/under: 74.5
Are the D’Backs ready to overtake the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres in the National League West? No. But could they make things interesting in the NL wild-card race? I don’t see why not.
The 74.5 wins projection is a bit surprising as they finished with 74 wins last year and got better this offseason. They added some thump to the bench with Evan Longoria and Kyle Lewis, plus a solid DH in Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno was also added to the mix.
Arizona also improved a bullpen that was among the league’s worst in 2022 by adding Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro, and Scott McGough. All of these additions should help, but let’s not forget about the talent already on the roster.
Corbin Carroll is a frontrunner for National League Rookie of the Year honors after impressing through 32 games last season. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker can both have big seasons at the plate, and the starting rotation is once again led by an underrated 1-2 punch of Zac Gallen — a dark-horse Cy Young candidate — and Merril Kelly. There are holes on the roster, particularly at the bottom of the rotation, but this is absolutely a team that can surprise some people. Sleep on the Diamondbacks at your own risk.
Miami Marlins
Win total over/under: 76.5
The Marlins won only 69 games in 2022 despite NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara leading one of the most talented young pitching staffs in the game. Simply put, the offense needs to hold up its end of the bargain to avoid another disappointing season.
Miami’s front office knows this, so it traded one of its best arms — Pablo Lopez — to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for reigning AL batting champ Luis Arraez. It also added veteran infielder Jean Segura to a lineup that still consists of MLB The Show 23 cover athlete Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2022 All-Star Garrett Cooper, Avisail Garcia, and Jorge Soler.
Bounce-back years from Garcia and Soler, as well as the health of Chisholm, will be key to the Marlins’ success in 2023. If they produce the pop they’re capable of producing and the starting rotation performs up to its potential, Miami can be a .500 team or better.
Boston Red Sox
Win total over/under: 78.5
Living in Boston, you’d be hard-pressed to hear one positive take on the Red Sox ahead of the 2023 season. It’s understandable. They’re coming off a last-place finish in the AL East and just lost their homegrown star shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, leave in free agency. The team is almost unrecognizable with the ridiculous amount of turnover on the roster this offseason.
The 2023 Red Sox mantra seems to be “What if?” There are “What ifs” all over the roster, and if enough of those “What ifs” come to fruition, this is a group with legitimate upside. Some of those “What ifs” include…
What if Masataka Yoshida is the real deal?
What if Chris Sale and James Paxton CAN stay healthy?
What if Brayan Bello pitches like a frontline starter?
What if Garrett Whitlock does the same?
What if Triston Casas is a Rookie of the Year candidate?
There are more, but you get the point. All of those are big “What ifs,” but they aren’t out of the realm of possibility. And if they do happen, there’s no doubt they boost Boston’s upside significantly. This club has a 70-win floor and a 90-win ceiling.
Los Angeles Angels
Win total over/under: 81.5
Yep, I’m falling for the Angels trap once again even though I fully expect to see this tweet pop up on my Twitter timeline a million times again this year.
Their success pretty much entirely depends on the health of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon. That star trio has been unable to stay on the field at the same time together since Rendon joined the team before the 2020 season. If this is the year that changes, I’d expect positive results.
The Angels made necessary preparations in case the injury bug becomes an issue yet again. Signing Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela adds much-needed depth to the infield. Then there’s the addition of Hunter Renfroe, who adds some pop to the lineup behind that Trout/Ohtani/Rendon combo.
Pitching, of course, has always been the Angels’ bugaboo. They bolstered their rotation by signing Tyler Anderson, who’s coming off a career year with the Dodgers. If the southpaw can duplicate that success, that’s a pretty solid staff with Ohtani, Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, and Reid Detmers.
Knowing that it’s silly to get your hopes up for the Angels, I was hesitant to put them on this list. But after looking at the roster, I’m ready to be disappointed again. Bring it on.
Texas Rangers
Win total over/under: 82.5
The Rangers are the sexy “sleeper” pick this year and for good reason. They finally overhauled their starting rotation, signing two-time Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom as the ace of a group that includes Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi.
Texas didn’t make many tweaks to its lineup, but it didn’t really have to. We know what Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are capable of, Nathaniel Lowe has established himself as one of the best first basemen in the game, and Adolis Garcia is a good bet for 30+ homers. While adding an impact outfield bat would have been nice, the offense will be the least of the Rangers’ concerns in 2023. This team’s success will hinge entirely on the pitching staff and whether that rotation can stay healthy. I’m choosing to believe it will because I’m a silly optimist.
If I’m right, we’re in for a hell of a year in the suddenly stacked American League West. I still see the Seattle Mariners finishing ahead of the Rangers and Angels, but I would not be surprised if it came down to the wire.