2023 MLB Standings Predictions: AL West
Will the Astros cruise to another division title?
Two American League divisions down, one to go.
Earlier this week, I took my best shot at predicting the 2023 AL East and AL Central standings. Today, we wrap up the Junior Circuit in the AL West.
Before we jump into the predictions, a friendly reminder that you can get all of these predictions and the rest of my content in your e-mail inbox as soon as it’s published. Just enter your e-mail and subscribe below. I’ll be predicting the National League standings next week and awards/playoffs after that.
The American League West should be more competitive in 2023. The reigning World Series champion Houston Astros remain the class of the division, but they’ll be challenged for that top spot. The Seattle Mariners have the talent to make a deep postseason run after ending their 20-year playoff drought last fall. The Los Angeles Angels improved during the offseason and can make some noise if they stay healthy. The Texas Rangers completely overhauled their starting rotation. The Oakland Athletics… well, they’ll be in rebuild mode.
Here’s how I see it playing out.
1. Seattle Mariners (96-66)
2022 result: 90-72, second in AL West, lost to Astros in ALDS (3-0)
Yup, we’re getting weird right off the bat.
Other than the abbreviated 2020 season, the Astros have won the AL West each year since 2017. The Mariners haven’t won the division since 2001. So, why do I think that’ll change?
The Mariners are one of the most complete teams in the majors. We’ll start with the lineup, which of course features 2022 AL Rookie of the Year and future MVP Julio Rodriguez. He headlines a group that added slugger Teoscar Hernandez, two-time Gold Glove second baseman Kolten Wong, and veteran outfielder AJ Pollock during the offseason. Ty France — one of the most underrated players in the sport — and Eugenio Suarez are back to provide some power. Seattle could end up in the top 10 in runs scored.
Pitching, however, remains the Mariners’ greatest strength. The rotation is stacked with Luis Castillo, former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Marco Gonzales. I wouldn’t be completely stunned if any of those first four names won the Cy Young in 2023. In fact, I even put a futures bet on Kirby (+6000!!!) to win the award after his impressive rookie campaign.
The bullpen is just as filthy. Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, and Diego Castillo can go toe-to-toe with the back of most bullpens in the league. Matt Brash has elite stuff and will look to put it all together in his sophomore season.
It won’t be easy, and the odds aren’t in their favor, but the Mariners have the firepower to overtake the Astros and make a deeper postseason run.
2. Houston Astros (95-67)
2022 result: 106-56, first in AL West, won World Series
The Astros are heavy favorites to win their third consecutive division title and enter the season favored to win the World Series again in 2023. Rightfully so.
Pretty much all of the major contributors to that ‘22 championship are ready to run it back. Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Pena return to a scary lineup that got even scarier in the offseason with the addition of veteran slugger Jose Abreu.
The biggest loss of the winter was 2022 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander signing with the New York Mets. That leaves a significant void at the top of the rotation, though Houston should still be in good shape with Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier as its 1-2 punch. Lance McCullers Jr. will bring a boost if and when he’s healthy. Rookie right-hander Hunter Brown is ready to make an impact in his first full season and coincidentally has drawn Verlander comparisons. You be the judge.
Other than the addition of Abreu, the loss of Verlander, and a full season of Brown, the Astros don’t look a whole lot different after their championship season. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
3. Los Angeles Angels (84-78)
2022 result: 73-89, third in AL West, missed postseason
Before I jump into the Angels analysis, I just have to include this all-time tweet.
It never gets old. Probably because it’s a dead-on description of the Angels every single year.
They’ll look to shed that reputation after improving both their lineup and rotation during the offseason. The additions of Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury give them depth at multiple positions, which was an issue for them throughout their injury-plagued 2022. Hunter Renfroe adds pop to an offense that ranked 25th in runs scored. Left-hander Tyler Anderson, coming off a career year with the Dodgers, was signed to replace Noah Syndergaard. That should be an upgrade.
Despite those improvements, the biggest key to a successful Angels season is the health of stars Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon. If all three of them stay healthy and play to their potential, this club could compete for a playoff spot.
4. Texas Rangers (82-80)
2022 result: 68-94, fourth in AL West, missed postseason
The Rangers invested $500 million in the middle of their infield by signing Marcus Semien and Corey Seager ahead of the 2022 season. The result was a 68-win season that can largely be blamed on their lackluster pitching staff.
They responded by overhauling their starting rotation during the offseason. Two-time Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom signed a five-year, $185 million contract to become the ace of the staff. They also added Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi. Health is a real concern with this group — and some injury issues have already popped up this spring — but it’s a collection of high-upside arms that can turn Texas into a winning team in 2023.
With Semian and Seager leading the way, the Rangers lineup should be rock-solid once again. Nathaniel Lowe will look to build off a monster 2022 campaign and Adolis Garcia is a good bet for 30+ homers. Rookie third baseman Josh Jung could be the upgrade Texas has been looking for at the position.
The glaring weakness in left field remains an issue ahead of the new season. The Rangers ranked dead last in production at the position last year. That’s something they’ll need to figure out as the year goes on but overall this group is capable of making a significant step in the right direction.
5. Oakland Athletics (66-96)
2022 result: 60-102, fifth in AL West, missed postseason
They say time is money, so I’m going to spend as much time on the A’s as they spent money on improving their roster this past winter.
Oakland completed its firesale by sending star catcher Sean Murphy to the Atlanta Braves in a three-team trade for prospects. One of those prospects was Esteury Ruiz, who came over from Milwaukee. Ruiz possesses elite speed and could be one of the more fun rookies to watch in 2023.
There isn’t much fun elsewhere on the roster. Shea Langeliers, a former first-round pick acquired in the 2022 Matt Olson trade, will get to start at catcher following the Murphy deal. Manny Pina was signed as a capable backup catcher, plus veterans Jesus Aguilar and Jace Peterson were added to the mix during the offseason.
The A’s finishing anywhere other than the cellar would be a shocker. They’ll just hope to not lose 100+ games for the second straight year.