2024 MLB Standings Predictions: NL West
Will the Dodgers win the division for the 11th time in 12 years?
Our 2024 MLB Standings Predictions series wraps up in the National League West, where the Los Angeles Dodgers look to earn their 11th division title in 12 years.
Before we jump in, here are the rest of my division standings predictions if you haven’t checked them out yet:
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The Dodgers are even more loaded as they eye yet another division title. The San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres each had active offseasons as they look to overtake L.A. or at least battle for a Wild Card spot. The Colorado Rockies are hardly worth discussing as they’ll probably lose 100+ games again.
Here are my official 2024 NL West predictions.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (102-60)
2023 results: 100-62, first in NL West, lost to Arizona Diamondbacks in NLDS
We don’t need to spend much time on the Dodgers here because they’re a no-brainer for the first-place team in the division. They’re coming off a 100-win campaign and got even better in the offseason adding two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, coveted Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, filthy right-hander Tyler Glasnow, and slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernandez among others. The lineup is borderline unfair and the pitching staff remains stacked.
It’s World Series or bust for this group after two consecutive NLDS defeats. Another historic regular season means virtually nothing because with this roster, it’s expected. The fact this club’s only World Series title since 1988 came in the 2020 COVID-shortened campaign is inexcusable.
As loaded as L.A. is, there are some question marks heading into Opening Day. Clayton Kershaw will be out until around the trade deadline. Walker Buehler will open the season on the injured list. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year due to Tommy John recovery. Mookie Betts moved over to shortstop with Gavin Lux struggling mightily there defensively.
The Dodgers are deep enough to overcome those issues, but it just goes to show even the best teams in the league are flawed. That said, wake me up for the playoffs, and then we’ll see whether this L.A. club is different from the others.
2. San Francisco Giants (86-76)
2023 results: 79-83, fourth in NL West, missed postseason
Here’s where the division gets interesting. Any of these next three teams can take the No. 2 spot. It’ll be tight, but I think the Giants did enough in the offseason to separate themselves after a down 2023 campaign.
Reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell joins the runner-up for the award, Logan Webb, atop the rotation. Kyle Harrison, the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, could give San Francisco a scary 1-2-3 if he builds off his impressive debut season. The team also added hard-throwing reliever Jordan Hicks to the mix and converted him to a starter. Alex Cobb and former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray will return from injury later in the year.
Elite closer Camilo Doval returns to anchor a bullpen that was among the league’s best last year despite overuse. The Giants were the only team with more than 700 innings pitched by their relievers in 2023.
Pitching shouldn’t be a problem for San Francisco in 2024. Offense is where the Giants needed to improve this past winter, and they appear to have done so by bringing in Japanese outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, third baseman Matt Chapman, outfielder/DH Jorge Soler, and catcher Tom Murphy.
Along with Snell, the Giants took manager Bob Melvin from the Padres. Melvin will replace Gabe Kapler, who was fired after four years in the Bay.
Holding off the D-Backs and Padres will be tough, but I think the Giants did just enough this offseason to gain an edge.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78)
2023 results: 84-78, second in NL West, lost to Texas Rangers in World Series
When I listed the Diamondbacks as a team that would exceed expectations in 2023, I didn’t anticipate them reaching the World Series. I thought they’d be a competitive club that would sneak into the playoffs if everything went right, but a deep postseason run didn’t seem realistic.
They maximized their talent with NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll taking the league by storm, Zac Gallen flirting with the Cy Young, Ketel Marte having a bounce-back year, and Christian Walker establishing himself as one of the game’s best first basemen. Everything did go right for this Arizona team, but make no mistake, it was no fluke.
The D-Backs are ready to make another run with a roster that on paper is even better than last season’s. They bolstered the rotation with left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez and inserted some pop into the lineup with Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson. They also brought back outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., a key contributor to their memorable 2023 season after being acquired from Toronto.
With Montgomery and E-Rod in the mix, Arizona’s 1-5 of Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Montgomery, E-Rod, and Brandon Pfaadt has the potential to be one of MLB’s best. The lineup will probably still rank in the middle of the pack, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Caroll takes home the MVP award at season’s end.
I mentioned earlier that 2 through 4 in this division is a toss-up. I’m slotting the D-Backs in at third place not because they’re noticeably worse than San Francisco, but because the Giants roster looks slightly better to me when comparing the two clubs. I wouldn’t be shocked by Arizona finishing anywhere from 2nd to 4th in this competitive division.
4. San Diego Padres (83-79)
2023 results: 82-80, third in NL West, missed postseason
The Padres were expected to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West crown and contend for the World Series last season after signing All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts to a preposterous $280 million contract. Those lofty expectations led to disappointment as San Diego finished 82-80 — a record aided by winning 20 of its last 27 games — and failed to clinch a playoff spot.
With so much talent on the roster, the Padres’ lack of success was a head-scratcher. They had Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Yu Darvish leading one of the league’s best pitching staffs, arguably the best closer in the game in Josh Hader, and a star-studded lineup anchored by Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis Jr. That isn’t a group that should finish barely over .500.
Nonetheless, the Padres blew their chance and will look to bounce back with a different-looking, albeit still talented, roster. Snell left in free agency for the Giants and will be replaced by Dylan Cease, acquired via trade with the Chicago White Sox earlier this month. Soto and outfielder Trent Grisham were traded to the New York Yankees for pitcher Michael King, catcher Kyle Higashioka, and prospects. Hader signed with the Houston Astros in free agency. Reliever Scott Barlow was traded to the Cleveland Guardians. Manager Bob Melvin was replaced with former St. Louis Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt.
Wandy Peralta, Woo-Suk Go, and Yuki Matsui were signed to improve the Hader-less bullpen. San Diego’s offseason was largely spent filling the voids left by their departing free agents.
A bounce-back season is absolutely on the table for this Padres team. All of their numbers from last year show that they should have been much better than they were. Still, after a letdown season in which they had a better roster, I can’t predict them to take major strides after losing some of their best players.
5. Colorado Rockies (61-101)
2023 results: 59-103, fifth in NL West, missed postseason
The Rockies finishing dead last in the division for the third straight year is a foregone conclusion. They didn’t do anything to improve the roster after failing to cross the 60-win threshold last season.
The only reasons to pay any attention to Colorado in 2024 are Nolan Jones, Brenton Doyle, and Ezequiel Tovar. Jones burst on the scene with a .297/.389/.542 slash line, 20 homers, 62 RBI, and 20 stolen bases in just 106 games. He could establish himself as a star with a full 162-game campaign.
Doyle didn’t offer much upside at the plate but was exceptional in center field, resulting in his first Gold Glove award. He also swiped 22 bags.
The Rockies’ only noteworthy offseason move was signing shortstop Tovar to a seven-year, $63.5 million extension. The 22-year-old’s numbers from his rookie year don’t jump off the page but he went through some impressive stretches at the plate. He finished second among all MLB shortstops in doubles (37) and was top 10 in hits and RBI.
But yeah, that’s about all there is to get excited about in Denver right now. It’s gonna be another long year.
What are your NL West predictions? Leave them in the comments and be sure to subscribe to the newsletter below.