2024 MLB Standings Predictions: AL Central
Which club will win the worst division in baseball?
Our 2024 MLB standings predictions series continues in the worst division in baseball: the American League Central.
In case you missed it, my AL East predictions were published earlier this week. The rest of the divisions will be rolled out before Opening Day on March 28. To get everything in your e-mail inbox as soon as it’s published, subscribe below:
There’s no sugarcoating it, the AL Central stinks. Like last year, whichever team wins the division probably won’t top the 90-win mark.
The Minnesota Twins are favored to repeat as AL Central champs, though the Detroit Tigers are a trendy pick to take the division crown. The Cleveland Guardians have the talent to win the wide-open division despite a boring offseason. The Kansas City Royals upgraded their roster after an abysmal 2023 campaign, and the Chicago White Sox are in the midst of a rebuild.
Here are my AL Central predictions for 2024…
1. Minnesota Twins (85-77)
2023 results: 87-75, first in AL Central, lost to Houston Astros in ALDS
The Twins hope to build off a 2023 campaign in which they won the division and their first postseason series since 2002. They’ll begin the new season favored to repeat as AL Central champs despite several key offseason departures.
Their most notable loss was Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray, who signed with the St. Louis Cardinals in free agency. Without him, seventh-place Cy Young finisher Pablo Lopez will take over as the ace with Joe Ryan as the No. 2.
Also no longer with the club are outfielder Michael Taylor, first baseman/outfielder Joey Gallo, right-hander Kenta Maeda, second baseman Jorge Polanco, infielder Donovan Solano, reliever Emilio Pagan, and lefty Dallas Keuchel. Minnesota’s only offseason additions worth mentioning are veteran slugger Carlos Santana, outfielder Manuel Margot, and relievers Jay Jackson and Justin Topa.
The slow winter indicates the Twins are confident young guns Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien will take a step forward. Lewis is a strong breakout candidate after showcasing his talent in the playoffs, when he blasted four homers in six games. He also set a Twins record with five grand slams during the regular season.
Of course, even breakout years from Lewis and Julien won’t be enough to get Minnesota where it wants to be come October. All-Stars Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton must bounce back from their disappointing 2023 seasons. If everything breaks the right way, this lineup can hang with its AL competitors.
Finally, the Twins bullpen looks to be a strength again but is already dealing with injuries. Hard-throwing closer Jhoan Duran is set to begin the season on the injured list due to an oblique strain. Lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar will also miss time with a hamstring issue.
It’s easy to see why Minnesota is expected to repeat as AL Central champs. That said, it won’t be a cakewalk.
2. Detroit Tigers (80-82)
2023 results: 78-84, second in AL Central, missed postseason
After several rebuilding years, the Tigers are finally starting to trend upward. They saw encouraging improvements last season from their young talent including first baseman Spencer Torkelson, outfielder Riley Greene, left-hander Tarik Skubal, and righty Reese Olson. They spent their offseason adding veterans to the mix.
Detroit’s winter was highlighted by the acquisitions of righties Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, outfielder Mark Canha, reliever Andrew Chafin, and utility infielder Gio Urshela. While those moves probably won’t get anyone excited, they should help raise the floor of a club that will mostly depend on its returning players.
Skubal showed ace potential in 2023, posting a 2.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with 102 strikeouts and only 14 walks in 15 starts (80.1 innings). If he can stay healthy this time around, he’s a dark-horse Cy Young candidate.
Greene also missed a chunk of the season due to injuries but showed why he was selected fifth overall in the 2019 draft. He notched a .796 OPS and led all Tigers position players with a 2.3 fWAR in 99 games.
The Tigers need Greene, Torkelson, and the rest of the lineup to make significant strides to have any shot at competing in 2024. They finished last year 28th in runs scored (661) and OPS (.687). That simply won’t cut it, even if the promising pitching staff takes another step forward.
3. Cleveland Guardians (79-83)
2023 results: 76-86, third in AL Central, missed postseason
It’s a new era in Cleveland with longtime skipper Terry Francona calling it a career after 23 years as a manager (11 with Guardians). Former MLB catcher Stephen Vogt will replace Francona as skipper, marking his first season as a big-league manager.
Vogt takes over a club more than capable of winning this weak division. The roster looks almost identical to last year’s, and although 2023 was a disappointment, there’s potential for a bounce-back campaign especially if improvements are made offensively.
Perennial MVP candidate Jose Ramirez remains in the mix along with All-Star second baseman Andres Gimenez, outfielder Steven Kwan, first baseman Josh Naylor and his brother, catcher Bo Naylor. While that isn’t exactly Murderers’ Row, it isn’t a terrible group of hitters. They’re better than the numbers from last season suggest.
The Guardians’ pitching staff remains their strength. Former Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber returns as the ace and is followed by Rookie of the Year runner-up Tanner Bibee, Triston McKenzie Logan Allen, and Carlos Carrasco. Gavin Williams will start the season on the injured list due to an elbow injury.
Star closer Emmanuel Clase will return after being the subject of trade rumors throughout the winter. Reliever Scott Barlow will shore up the bullpen after being acquired from the San Diego Padres early in the offseason.
Overall, the Guardians are a solid albeit unspectacular group that will likely finish right around .500. Fortunately for them, they shouldn’t have to exceed those expectations by much to finish as AL Central champs.
4. Kansas City Royals (74-88)
2023 results: 56-106, fifth in AL Central, missed postseason
Kansas City is an interesting sleeper candidate after failing to crack 60 wins last year. It was among the most active clubs during the offseason, and its additions should at the very least make it competitive in 2024.
Those acquisitions included starters Kyle Wright, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo, relievers Nick Anderson, John Schreiber, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton, utility man Garrett Hampson, outfielder Hunter Renfroe, and second baseman Adam Frazier. All that spending was a statement that they’re done cellar-dwelling and ready to be taken seriously in the division.
Of all their offseason moves, however, their biggest one was locking up their up-and-coming star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. for the next decade. They signed Witt to an 11-year contract extension worth $288 million, by far the biggest deal given out in franchise history. That’s a pretty clear sign that the rebuild is nearing its end if it isn’t over already.
Along with Witt, intriguing talent already exists on the roster. Left-hander Cole Ragans broke out with the club after being acquired from the Texas Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman deal. He posted a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 89 strikeouts in 12 starts (71.2 innings) with Kansas City. I have him as my 2024 AL Cy Young dark-horse candidate.
As much as the Royals should improve this year, we shouldn’t expect a 56-win club to turn into a contender overnight. The transition will take another year or two, but this is an organization that appears to be on the right track.
5. Chicago White Sox (55-107)
2023 results: 61-101, fourth in AL Central, missed postseason
Take the opposite of everything I just wrote about the Royals and that describes the 2024 White Sox. Chicago has parted ways with several key players since last year’s trade deadline and is in the running for the worst record in MLB this season.
The club’s biggest loss of the offseason was ace Dylan Cease, who they traded to the Padres in exchange for a handful of prospects and big-league reliever Steven Wilson. Without Cease, Lucas Giolito (traded before 2023 deadline, signed with Boston Red Sox in offseason), and Mike Clevinger (still a free agent), the White Sox pitching staff is brutal.
Garrett Crochet is the Opening Day starter after posting a 5.70 FIP and 1.97 WHIP in 13 bullpen appearances last season. Michael Soroka joins via their offseason trade with the Atlanta Braves, and while he has shown ace-like stuff, he’s an injury waiting to happen. Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen don’t offer much upside in the back end of the rotation.
If the recent actions of the White Sox front office are any indication, we should expect another fire sale at the deadline. Star outfielder Luis Robert is a candidate to be moved along with third baseman Yoan Moncada, outfielder Andrew Benintendi, and Eloy Jimenez. Everything should be on the table to expedite the rebuild process.
What are your AL Central predictions? Leave them in the comments, and be sure to subscribe to the newsletter below.
Well done sir. you are very impressive. No, wait, your knowledge and terribly lazy approach "stinks". Stop wasting our time pretending like you actually have a feel for this stuff. Typical yap first guy who never played beyond age 8, but sure likes to act like he knows first base from third. No. You don't.