We’re on to the National League after making predictions for all three American League divisions last week. If you missed those, you can click the links below:
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Today, we’ll break out the crystal ball for the NL East. The Atlanta Braves remain the class of the division with arguably the best roster in baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies hope for another deep playoff run without another early-season slump. The New York Mets aim to bounce back after a tremendously disappointing 2023 campaign. The Miami Marlins look to take another step forward after sneaking into the playoffs, and the Washington Nationals simply want to see progress as their rebuild continues.
Here’s how I see it all shaking out…
1. Atlanta Braves (103-59)
2023 results: 104-58, first in NL East, lost to Philadelphia Phillies in NLDS
The Braves again enter the season as clearcut World Series favorites. They’ll run it back with mostly the same loaded lineup to go with a pitching staff that should improve in 2024.
Atlanta dominated last season despite missing ace Max Fried for most of the year due to injuries. This season, it should get a full year of arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball with Fried following Spencer Strider. Trusty veteran Charlie Morton remains in the mix, and the rotation could get a major boost if offseason acquisition Chris Sale stays healthy. Free-agent signing Reynaldo Lopez is expected to be the No. 5 starter after spending the last two years as a reliever for the Chicago White Sox.
Also arriving in Atlanta via Chicago is left-handed reliever Aaron Bummer, who struggled last season but previously was one of the best bullpen arms in the game. He improves a Braves ‘pen that already was among the game’s elite. Raise Iglesias anchors the group with Joe Jimenez, A.J. Minter, and Pierce Johnson also leading the way.
As solid as the Braves pitching staff looks, this team will again lean on its lineup to win games. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Ronald Acuńa repeat as NL MVP. Then there’s the 2023 league leader in homers Matt Olson (54), arguably the best third baseman in the game Austin Riley, a fearsome DH in Marcell Ozuna, plus All-Stars Orlando Arcia, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies. This group put a league-high 947 runs on the board last season and could top that mark in 2024.
Atlanta is mostly running it back, but one noticeable difference from last year resides in left field. The club acquired former top prospect Jarred Kelenic from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for pitchers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. Kelenic will split time with veteran Adam Duvall, who is entering his third stint with the Braves after spending last season with the Boston Red Sox. This tandem replaces Eddie Rosario, who left for the Nationals during the offseason.
Another dominant regular season is expected from Atlanta, though that won’t matter if it disappoints in the playoffs for the third consecutive year. It fell to the Phillies in the last two NLDS and a similar result this October — with such a stacked roster — would be unacceptable.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)
2023 results: 90-72, second in NL East, lost to Arizona Diamondbacks in NLCS
In 2023, the Phillies didn’t look like a legitimate postseason contender until around the All-Star break. They experienced an early-season slump that can be partly attributed to key contributors Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and Ranger Suarez missing time due to injuries.
They snapped out of that funk and went on a tear the rest of the season. Their momentum carried into the playoffs where they blew past the Marlins, upset the Braves, and made it to Game 7 of the NLCS before falling to the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks. So, what’s next as they look to get over the hump?
Philly’s biggest offseason moves were re-signing Aaron Nola and extending Zack Wheeler to lock in the 1-2 punch atop the rotation for the next several years. Other than that, there wasn’t much action from Dave Dombrowski and Co. They signed veteran utility man Whit Merrifield as a bench bat and defensive versatility and added Spencer Turnbull as their fifth starter.
While there aren’t many new faces in the clubhouse, the Phillies didn’t need to go all out to acquire talent. They already have one of the best starting rotations and bullpens to go with a high-upside offense.
They’ll be overshadowed by the Braves from March to September, but you can count on the Phils making noise come October.
3. New York Mets (82-80)
2023 results: 75-87, fourth in NL East, missed postseason
Calling the Mets’ 2023 season a failure would be a massive understatement. It was a disaster.
Owner Steve Cohen spent big ahead of the ‘23 campaign to give his club a $331 million payroll on Opening Day. He was commended for his effort to improve the roster, but the Mets became an example of why throwing money around isn’t always the best strategy. They went from being a popular World Series pick to selling at the trade deadline and finishing 12 games under .500.
There are reasons to believe 2024 will be a step in the right direction for New York. Manager Buck Showalter was fired in favor of ex-Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza. The club also hired David Stearns — formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers — as its president of baseball operations. Stearns enjoyed success despite budgetary constraints in Milwaukee and now joins an organization with seemingly unlimited resources.
The Mets’ offseason was filled with under-the-radar moves that could pay dividends. They bolstered the rotation — which was among the league’s worst in 2023 — by signing Sean Manaea as well as Luis Severino, who hopes to bounce back after an awful campaign in the Bronx. They also added former Brewers righty Adrian Houser to the back end.
Harrison Bader joined as a defensive improvement in the outfield and J.D. Martinez signed a one-year deal to provide pop in the middle of the lineup. Jake Diekman and Michael Tonkin were added to the bullpen, which stud closer Edwin Diaz will anchor again after missing all of 2023 with a torn patellar tendon.
The key for the Mets will be their ace Kodai Senga, who’s entering the year with shoulder issues. Missing him for an extended period would be a major blow the rotation can’t afford.
A lot will need to go right for the Mets to bounce back and contend for a playoff spot, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility. I see them as slightly better than mediocre, which could be enough to earn one of the three Wild Card spots.
4. Miami Marlins (77-85)
2023 results: 84-78, third in NL East, lost to Philadelphia Phillies in Wild Card Series
The Marlins are looking to build off their success from last season, when they snuck into the playoffs despite a negative run differential. Was that a fluke, or is this an organization trending upward?
It’s actually remarkable how Miami managed to finish with a winning record. Its ace, 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, struggled before undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery. The offense finished 26th in runs scored and 19th in OPS.
With Alcantara out, the rest of the pitching staff picked up the slack. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett were a breath of fresh air along with youngster Eury Perez. Former top prospect Edward Cabrera showed some flashes of brilliance as well.
In the bullpen, Tanner Scott emerged as a shutdown reliever. Dylan Floro, A.J. Puk, and Andrew Nardi also had standout seasons.
Offensively, hit machine Luis Arraez and slugger Jorge Soler were the stars. The 2024 Marlins will have to overcome the loss of Soler, who left in the offseason for the San Francisco Giants.
That’s a significant departure given Miami’s lack of offensive firepower. Fortunately, Josh Bell re-signed with the club, and fellow trade deadline addition Jake Burger should be able to replace some of Soler’s power.
The Marlins didn’t make many notable offseason moves, which is pretty surprising given how their 2023 went. They inked former White Sox infielder Tim Anderson to a one-year deal hoping he can bounce back from an awful year. They also acquired former Rays top prospect Vidal Brujan in a trade.
Going back to that “fluke or trending upward?” question, I lean toward the former. I look at the Marlins’ 2023 record as an anomaly, and the organization did next to nothing to improve. I’d be stunned if they repeat as playoff contenders in 2024.
5. Washington Nationals (73-89)
2023 results: 71-91, fifth in NL East, missed postseason
The Nats will probably finish in the cellar for the fourth straight year, but they could be fun to watch while doing so.
There’s some intriguing young talent on this Washington roster, starting with James Wood and Dylan Crews. Wood has torn up the minors since being selected in the second round of the 2021 draft. Crews was taken No. 2 overall in last year’s draft and, if all goes according to plan, he could be called up to The Show as soon as this season.
Then there are the young guns already on the big-league roster. Former San Diego Padres prospect CJ Abrams debuted last year and posted a .718 OPS with 18 homers, but the real takeaway was his elite speed as he went 47-for-51 on stolen bases. Young starters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore weren’t world-beaters by any means, but both had the best season of their respective MLB careers thus far.
Since they’re still in rebuild mode, the Nationals didn’t go nuts attempting to improve their roster in the offseason. They added veteran outfielders Joey Gallo and Eddie Rosario, relievers Richard Bleier and Dylan Florio, and utility man Nick Senzel.
With their 2023 star Jeimer Candelario out of the picture, the Nats will hope at least one of those acquisitions steps up in a lineup led by underrated slugger Lane Thomas. Thomas was second on the team in bWAR (2.8) with 28 homers, 86 RBI, and a .783 OPS.
No, the Nationals won’t make it out of the cellar, but they’ll be worth your attention in 2024 especially if Wood and/or Crews enter the equation.
What are your NL East predictions? Leave them in the comments and be sure to subscribe to the newsletter below.