It’s officially Prediction SZN. Up until Opening Day on March 28, I’ll be revealing my annual predictions for each MLB division, plus end-of-season awards and the postseason.
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Our 2024 divisional predictions begin in the American League East. The Baltimore Orioles are looking to repeat as division champs after a dominant 101-win season. The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays are eyeing another postseason berth after being swept out of the Wild Card Series. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox hope to avoid the cellar and regain their reputations as AL East powerhouses, though only one of them made a serious effort to improve in the offseason.
This division remains one of the toughest to predict in the league, but I’ll give it my best shot. Here goes nothing…
1. Baltimore Orioles (94-68)
2023 result: 101-61, first in AL East, lost to Texas Rangers in ALDS
The young O’s set the bar high with a 101-win season in 2023. Adley Rutschman built off his Rookie of the Year runner-up campaign, earning an All-Star nod with another outstanding year at and behind the plate. Gunnar Henderson cruised to Rookie of the Year honors and already looks like a superstar.
The pitching staff was surprisingly stellar, led by breakout Cy Young candidate Kyle Bradish and shutdown closer Felix Bautista. Unfortunately for Baltimore, it’s down both standout hurlers for a while. Bradish will start the year on the injured list with a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow while Bautista sits out until 2025 due to Tommy John recovery. Southpaw John Means is also experiencing elbow issues heading into the season.
The Orioles immediately filled those voids by acquiring ace Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers and signing veteran closer Craig Kimbrel. If and when Bradish returns from his injury, that’s a scary 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Of course, Kimbrel can’t replace Bautista at this stage of his career, but he’s a solid fill-in for a bullpen that needed stability in the back end. Second-year starter Grayson Rodriguez could also step up for the rotation after finishing the 2023 season strong.
Outside of those offseason additions, Baltimore’s most notable arrival will be No. 1 ranked MLB prospect Jackson Holliday. The 20-year-old shortstop and son of former Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday is the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 Rookie of the Year award after lighting up the minors the last two seasons. Outfielders Colton Cowser (No. 19 overall prospect) and Heston Kjerstad (No. 32) could also continue the Orioles’ youth movement.
The AL East will again be one of the league’s toughest divisions, but the Orioles have what it takes to defend their crown. I believe the young talent will take another step forward and I’m picking them to repeat.
New York Yankees (88-74)
2023 result: 82-80, fourth in AL East, missed postseason
The Bronx Bombers are coming off an extremely disappointing campaign in which they failed to clinch a postseason berth for the first time since 2016. They didn’t enough pitching behind Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole and the offense left plenty to be desired outside of Aaron Judge.
General manager Brian Cashman decided enough was enough and had himself an eventful offseason, starting with a blockbuster deal for 25-year-old slugger Juan Soto and a rare trade with their archrival Boston Red Sox for outfielder Alex Verdugo. They also bolstered the rotation by signing righty Marcus Stroman.
Each of those additions should help New York return to form as a competitive club in the division, though there’s one major concern heading into Opening Day. Cole has been shut down from throwing for at least a month due to nerve inflammation and edema in his right elbow. While he’s “absolutely confident” he’ll pitch this season, that’s a massive blow to a Yankees pitching staff that is expected to be without its ace until early June/late May at the earliest.
Despite Cole’s injury, New York should take a noticeable step forward. How far it goes will depend on how the non-Judge/Soto hitters fare, plus how Stroman adjusts to life in Yankee pinstripes. It could be a bumpy ride along the way but I view the Yankees as a playoff contender for 2024.
Toronto Blue Jays (86-76)
2023 result: 89-73, third in AL East, lost to Minnesota Twins in Wild Card Series
Toronto’s fearsome lineup greatly underperformed last season. It finished 14th in runs scored and 11th in OPS, which is disappointing when your offense consists of Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman, and Alejandro Kirk.
The Jays also played without former Cy Young candidate Alek Manoah for most of the year. The 26-year-old righty was demoted to the Florida Complex League — yes, that’s rookie ball — after an abysmal start to the season. He ended up making 19 starts with the big-league club, posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 87.1 innings.
Even without Manoah atop the rotation, the Blue Jays’ pitching staff was a strength. It finished with the fourth-best ERA while striking out the second-most batters. Cy Young third-place finisher Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi held down the fort in Manoah’s absence.
They may have to do the same in 2024 if Manoah can’t bounce back. As for the offense, it replaces Chapman with veteran slugger Justin Turner, who’s coming off a strong season in Boston. It was an underwhelming offseason otherwise.
Toronto’s success will hinge on whether the offense can play to its potential. Guerrero and Bichette can’t simply be good, they need to be stars. Springer has to prove he isn’t running out of gas at 34 years old. If those things happen, and the pitching staff picks up where it left off, the Blue Jays will find their way into the playoffs again and have a far better shot at making a run.
Tampa Bay Rays (85-77)
2023 result: 99-63, second in AL East, lost to Texas Rangers in Wild Card Series
Year after year I find myself underrating Tampa Bay, and it looks like this isn’t the year I learn my lesson.
The Rays enter 2024 with several question marks following the departures of several key players. There’s shortstop Wander Franco, whose career is likely over at 22 years old due to serious allegations of an improper relationship with a 14-year-old girl. Ace Tyler Glasnow departed in free agency for the Los Angeles Dodgers, stud reliever Robert Stephenson left for the L.A. Angels, Outfielders Manuel Margot and Luke Raley are with the Twins and Seattle Mariners, respectively.
Then, there are the injuries. Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs continue to recover from elbow injuries sustained last season. That leaves Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, and Taj Bradley to keep the rotation afloat. It isn’t the sexiest group on paper, though if there’s any club that can make it work, it’s Tampa.
Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz lead a lineup full of underrated players including Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, Jose Siri, and Harold Ramirez. We should also get an extended look at top infield prospect Junior Caminero. Again, not the best-looking lineup, but one that can surprise people (again).
I realize there’s a solid chance I’ll look back at these predictions and wonder why I doubted the Rays again. It has become an annual tradition. I’m just not willing to bet on a team that’s missing so many difference-makers. At some point, it’s just too much to overcome.
Boston Red Sox (79-83)
2023 result: 78-84, fifth in AL East, missed postseason
There is unrest among Boston fans heading into the new season, and rightfully so. The Red Sox are coming off two consecutive last-place finishes — three in the last four years — and did the bare minimum in the offseason after promising a “full throttle” approach.
Their most notable acquisition, right-hander Lucas Giolito, is out for the year due to a partially torn UCL. That means their lackluster rotation will be led by young righty Brayan Bello — who recently signed a six-year extension — Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford. That didn’t cut it a season ago, and we shouldn’t expect it to work this year either.
The lineup has its fair share of question marks as well. For instance, who will step up as the much-needed right-handed bat with Justin Turner gone? Can we really leave it up to Tyler O’Neill? The same guy who’s played more than 100 games just once in his six-year career due to injuries? Are Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela ready for a full year in the majors? Is the second base situation solved with the addition of Vaughn Grissom — who’s already hurt — or will it be another brutal year defensively at the position? Will Trevor Story finally start living up to his Red Sox contract?
There are more questions where that came from, meaning a lot needs to go right for Boston to sniff the playoffs. It seems more likely veterans on expiring deals like Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, O’Neill, and Nick Pivetta will be sold at the trade deadline as the team looks ahead to 2025.
What are your AL East predictions? Leave them in the comments and remember to subscribe to the newsletter below if you haven’t already.