2024 MLB Standings Predictions: NL Central
Let's predict this year's most unpredictable division.
Four divisions down, two to go. Today, we’re covering the National League Central.
Before we get into it, here are the links to my predictions for each American League division as well as the NL East:
NL West, playoffs, and end-of-season awards predictions are up next. Subscribe below to get everything delivered to your e-mail inbox as soon as it’s published.
The NL Central is the biggest toss-up of all the divisions in 2024. The Milwaukee Brewers ran away with it last season but lost several key pieces this past winter. Their ex-manager Craig Counsell left for a Chicago Cubs team that looks poised to overtake them for the top spot. The St. Louis Cardinals are odds-on favorites to win the division despite their last-place 71-91 finish in 2023. The Cincinnati Reds are flush with young talent and are a trendy pick to surprise people. And while the Pittsburgh Pirates are widely expected to be in the cellar, they could make things interesting.
Let’s get into it…
1. Cincinnati Reds (85-77)
2023 results: 82-80, third in NL Central, missed postseason
The Reds’ rebuild is starting to come to fruition. They’re loaded with young talent that nearly propelled them to a playoff berth in 2023.
Cincinnati’s young core includes second baseman Matt McLain, shortstop Elly De La Cruz, corner outfielder/infielder Spencer Steer, outfielder Will Benson, starters Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, and reliever Alexis Diaz. Each played a major role in the club’s 20-win improvement. In a wide-open NL Central, there’s no reason why the up-and-coming Reds can’t take another step forward and overtake their divisional foes.
Cincinnati finished top 10 in runs scored and OPS last season. Steer and TJ Friedl came out of nowhere to lead the offense with McLain raking in his 89 games played. Opposing pitchers figured out De La Cruz toward the end of his season but he showed off his intriguing talent immediately after his call-up to The Show.
Flamethrower Hunter Greene will lead a starting rotation that consists of Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft, Nick Martinez, and Andrew Abbott. Nick Lodolo, a trendy under-the-radar Cy Young pick last season, will start the season on the IL after missing most of 2023 with a tibia injury. The Reds bullpen was a top-five unit last season and should again be a strength with Diaz, Ian Gibaut, Lucas Sims, and Buck Farmer looking to duplicate their efforts.
If anything keeps the Reds from competing for a playoff berth in 2024, it’ll be their rotation. They should prioritize pitching help if they’re still in contention at the trade deadline. With the NL Central up for grabs, now is the time for Cincinnati to go for it.
2. Chicago Cubs (84-78)
2023 results: 83-79, second in NL Central, missed postseason
The Cubs finished just one game out of a playoff spot during their surprisingly solid 2023 campaign. Now, they’ll look to take the next step with ex-Brewers skipper Craig Counsell taking over for David Ross.
The manager change was Chicago’s biggest offseason move outside of signing Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga and re-signing 2023 NL Comeback Player of the Year Cody Bellinger. That’s sort of a letdown given the strides the club made last year, but this still looks like a team capable of contending.
Imanaga replaces Marcus Stroman (Yankees) and joins fifth-place 2023 NL Cy Young finisher Justin Steele atop a rotation that includes Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks, and Kyle Hendricks. He should help a group that was middle-of-the-pack in both ERA (14th) and WHIP (15th) last season.
Offensively, the Cubs boasted a top-10 lineup in 2023 but probably should have added at least one more big bat to the mix. Bellinger rejoins Dansby Swanson, Christopher Morel, Seiya Suzuki, and rookie Michael Busch in the meat of the lineup.
Will Counsell be enough of a difference-maker to lead Chicago into the postseason? Cubs fans will hope so, because the team didn’t exactly go all out to improve a roster that fell just short of the playoffs.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (82-80)
2023 results: 71-91, fifth in NL Central, missed postseason
No team was more disappointing last season than the Cardinals. The preseason favorite to win the NL Central finished dead last in the division with their worst record since 1990.
Pitching and defense caused St. Louis’ demise. The club ranked 24th in ERA and 27th in WHIP while allowing the second-most hits and striking out the second-fewest batters. Fielding-wise, the Cardinals posted -6 outs above average after having the fourth-best OAA in MLB (+26) the season prior.
Give the Cards front office credit for addressing those glaring issues in the offseason. They signed veterans Sonny Gray (second in 2023 AL Cy Young voting), Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn to fill out their rotation and eat innings. Slick-fielding veteran shortstop Brandon Crawford signed a one-year deal in free agency.
Gray, Miles Mikolas, Gibson, and Lynn may not solve all of St. Louis’ pitching problems, but it’s an improvement over what it had. As for the bullpen, the club acquired Andrew Kittredge, Riley O’Brien and Ryan Fernandez to shore up that side of the staff.
While offense was the least of the Cardinals’ concerns in 2023, the lineup failed to match expectations. Reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and perennial All-Star Nolan Arenado both had one of the worst seasons of their respective careers. Fortunately, secondary contributors like Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan picked up the slack. This group should be just fine if Goldschmidt and Arenado bounce back, though age might be starting to become a factor for both stars.
The Cardinals won’t be nearly as bad as last year, but was their active offseason enough to propel them back to first place? If it were any other division, probably not, but anything is possible in the NL Central.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (81-81)
2023 results: 92-70, first in NL Central, lost to Arizona Diamondbacks in Wild Card Series
The Brewers lost a number of key contributors over the offseason, starting with president of baseball operations David Stearns (Mets) and manager Craig Counsell (Cubs). Stearns was replaced with Matt Arnold and Counsell was supplanted by bench coach Pat Murphy.
Roster-wise, their most notable departure was ace Corbin Burnes, who was traded to the Baltimore Orioles for pitcher DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz. With Brandon Woodruff set to miss the season due to injury, that leaves Freddy Peralta as Milwaukee’s ace for 2024. Peralta is coming off a strong 2023 season in which he posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 210 strikeouts in 30 starts (165.2 innings). He’s capable of leading the rotation, but the key to success for Milwaukee will be Hall, Wade Miley, and Colin Rea, and Jakob Junis stepping up.
Another sizable loss for the Brew Crew is star reliever Devin Williams, who’s set to miss roughly three months with a back injury. That means Trevor Megill, Hoby Milner, and Joel Payamps will be counted on to anchor the back end of the bullpen until his return. Fortunately, they were rock-solid in relief last season.
As for the offensive side, Milwaukee signed ex-Phillies slugger Rhys Hoskins to a low-risk, potentially high-reward deal after he missed the 2023 season due to injury. He’ll bring much-needed power to a lineup that finished in the bottom half of the league in runs scored and OPS. This group could help make up for the pitching staff’s likely regression if Christian Yelich and William Contreras pick up where they left off and rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio plays at a Rookie of the Year-caliber level.
The Brewers are like the NL version of the Rays in that we often regret betting against them come October. However, I just see the losses of Counsell, Burnes, and Williams (for half of the year) as too much for them to overcome. They’ll remain competitive but fall a few games short in their tight division.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (78-84)
2023 results: 76-86, fourth in NL Central, missed postseason
It looks like I’m down on the Pirates because I have them finishing last in the division, but that’s not the case. That’s simply the product of their competitive division. I actually believe Pittsburgh will be a pesky club this season.
First and foremost, they’ll have their exciting young shortstop Oneil Cruz back in the mix after losing him to a freak injury last April. There’s high upside for this lineup if Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and Jack Suwinski play to their potential.
As for their offseason additions, it was an unexciting albeit interesting winter for Bob Nutting’s club. It assembled a strange group of veterans that includes catcher Yasmani Grandal, left-hander Josh Fleming, closer Aroldis Chapman, left-hander Martin Perez, and first baseman Rowdy Tellez.
Of all their moves, signing right-hander Mitch Keller to a five-year, $77 million contract extension was their biggest. Keller finished with an inspiring 4.21 ERA and 1.245 WHIP last season but flashed ace potential in several starts. The rest of the rotation behind Keller is a giant question mark. Perez will have to regain his 2022 All-Star form. Perhaps top prospect and No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes will debut and establish himself as Pittsburgh’s ace for years to come.
All-Star closer David Bednar returns to anchor the bullpen. A 1-2 punch of Bednar and Chapman could be scary, though it won’t matter much if the lackluster rotation can’t hold up its end of the bargain.
The Pirates can compete for a playoff spot with the expanded postseason format. But in the crowded NL Central, they’re still the weakest of the bunch on paper.
What are your NL Central predictions? Leave them in the comments and be sure to subscribe to the newsletter below.