Today, we head out west to wrap up the American League portion of our 2024 MLB standings predictions. To check out the AL East and AL Central previews, click the links below:
National League standings, playoffs, and end-of-season awards predictions will be rolled out next week ahead of Opening Day on March 28. You can subscribe below to get everything delivered to your e-mail inbox ASAP.
Surprise, surprise: the Houston Astros enter 2024 as favorites to win the AL West for the fourth consecutive year. That’s despite the Texas Rangers, who had the same regular-season record as Houston, defeating them in the ALCS and winning the World Series.
Don’t sleep on the Seattle Mariners either. While they failed to clinch a playoff spot last year, their elite starting rotation gives them an edge.
The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics are expected to be the bottom dwellers. L.A. lost superstar Shohei Ohtani and other key contributors in free agency during their forgettable offseason. As for Oakland, another horrific 50-win season is in play.
Here are my AL West predictions for 2024…
1. Houston Astros (93-68)
2023 results: 90-72, first in AL West, lost to Texas Rangers in ALCS
At this point, picking the Astros to win the AL West is a formality. Houston has won the division each season since 2017, not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.
Looking at the roster heading into 2024, there’s no reason why that streak shouldn’t continue. The Astros’ star-studded core of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker remains intact. Altuve signed a five-year, $125 million contract extension this past winter and Bregman is entering his contract year.
Houston’s most notable offseason departures were bullpen arms Hector Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek. To help make up for those losses, the team signed elite closer Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million deal. Pairing the All-Star southpaw with Ryan Pressly at the back end of the ‘pen is scary.
The biggest concerns for the Astros ahead of Opening Day are the injuries to the starting pitching staff. Justin Verlander, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Lance McCullers Jr. are each expected to begin the season on the injured list. That leaves Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier as the 1-2 punch in the rotation out of the gate, followed by Ronel Blanco and second-year hurlers Hunter Brown and J.P. France.
Injuries might be the only thing in Houston’s way of yet another division title and perhaps its eighth straight ALCS appearance. When its lineup and pitching staff are firing on all cylinders, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better bet in the American League.
2. Seattle Mariners (89-73)
2023 results: 88-74, third in AL West, missed postseason
The Mariners barely missed the playoffs last year after finishing just two games behind the Astros and Rangers. Offense was the separator between Seattle and its division rivals.
Both Houston and Texas were top-five MLB teams in runs scored and OPS. Seattle finished 12th and 16th in those categories, respectively.
Where the Mariners have the significant edge is their pitching staff, specifically the starting rotation. It finished third in ERA, WHIP, and quality starts while leading the league in shutouts. They’ll run it back with the same group — Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo. The first three are legitimate Cy Young contenders.
The bullpen also remains a strength with stud closer Andres Munoz as its anchor. Justin Topa is gone and Matt Brash will likely begin the season on the IL, but Gabe Speier and offseason acquisitions Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek are capable of holding down the fort.
With Teoscar Hernandez, Jarrod Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez each departing, it’s fair to be even more worried about the Mariners offense heading into 2024. However, the additions of Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver should help to ease those concerns. There’s some pop in the middle of that lineup alongside the face of the franchise Julio Rodriguez.
If Seattle can put more runs on the board than last year, the division title will be in reach.
3. Texas Rangers (86-76)
2023 results: 90-72, second in AL West, won World Series
The reigning World Series champs have what it takes to return to the big stage in 2024. They enter the season with arguably the league’s best lineup after finishing top-three in nearly every meaningful offensive category last year.
That fearsome lineup will again be headlined by ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia, World Series MVP Corey Seager, and Silver Slugger award winner Marcus Semien. Evan Carter is an AL Rookie of the Year favorite after breaking out in the playoffs. Last year’s No. 4 overall draft pick Wyatt Langford also could be in the RotY conversation after belting six homers in spring training.
If those sluggers play to their potential, it’ll be another year of Texas wreaking havoc on opposing pitching. However, it may have to start worrying about its own pitching staff.
Jacob deGrom remains out until at least August as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Fellow Cy Young winner Max Scherzer is out until June after undergoing back surgery. Free-agent signing Tyler Mahle will miss several months recovering from Tommy John. With Jordan Montgomery presumably leaving in free agency, the rotation will consist of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney. That isn’t a group that will strike fear in most offenses.
The bullpen is mediocre at best. Texas lost several relievers in free agency, namely Martin Perez, Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton. Veterans Kirby Yates and David Robertson were signed to minimize those losses.
The Rangers have their work cut out for them as they set their sights on a repeat. While the lineup should hold up its end of the bargain, the pitching staff leaves plenty to be desired at its current state. The key will be staying in contention until Scherzer and deGrom are back to 100 percent.
4. Los Angeles Angels (69-93)
2023 results: 73-89, fourth in AL West, missed postseason
Shohei Ohtani’s glaring absence significantly lowers the Angels’ stock heading into 2024, but he isn’t their only noteworthy departure. Randal Grichuk, Gio Urshela, C.J. Cron, and Mike Moustakas also signed elsewhere this offseason. David Fletcher and Max Stassi were traded to the Atlanta Braves for Evan White and Tyler Thomas.
Manager Phil Nevin was fired and replaced with former Rangers skipper Ron Washington, who led Texas to two consecutive World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011.
As for additions, L.A. spent most of the offseason bolstering its lackluster bullpen. Robert Stephenson highlighted a flurry of reliever signings that included Adam Cimber, Zach Plesac, and Adam Kolarek. That should help the ‘pen improve after a dismal 2023, but there are still huge holes in the lineup and the rotation. With a clear top three in the division, the Angels are a virtual lock for a fourth-place finish.
At this point, it’s fair to wonder whether we’ll ever see Mike Trout in the postseason again.
5. Oakland Athletics (54-108)
2023 results: 50-112, fifth in AL West, missed postseason
This will be the A’s final season calling Oakland Coliseum home as the organization prepares for its move to Las Vegas. The end of the Oakland era won’t be remembered fondly.
The A’s will be among MLB’s worst teams again in 2024. After finishing with a league-worst 50-112 record, their only notable improvement was adding veterans Ross Stripling and Alex Wood to the rotation. A 60-win campaign seems to be the best-case scenario.
As awful as the roster is, Oakland has a couple of players worth keeping tabs on. Second baseman Zack Gelof is a strong breakout candidate after putting up impressive numbers through his first 69 big-league games. Outfielder Brent Rooker is looking for his second straight All-Star nod after hitting 30 homers and posting an .817 OPS.
What are your AL West predictions? Leave them in the comments, and be sure to subscribe to the newsletter below.