Dark-horse candidates for 2023 MLB awards
Let's get bold.
I have a love/hate relationship with the month leading up to Opening Day. The wait for real baseball kills me but at the same time, it’s my favorite week for producing content. Wild predictions, bold statements, you name it. Until regular-season games are actually being played, it’s impossible to be wrong!
For example, this past week I wrote a couple of prediction pieces: Five MLB teams that will exceed expectations in 2023 and 10 MLB players ready to break out in 2023. There is a high probability that most of what I wrote in those two articles won’t age well. We’ll probably look back on them in October and have a good laugh. And you know what? I’m cool with that. Being wrong about sports can be fun.
This time, I’m not even going to try to be right. We’re going to get bold. I’m going to make picks for each end-of-season MLB award, but instead of naming the obvious candidates — Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Justin Verlander, etc. — I want to focus on the dark horses. The players with longshot odds to win awards that you aren’t thinking about, but should be.
I’ll make my real picks next month, so don’t hold these ones against me. But if they do end up being correct, be sure to give me all of the credit.
American League MVP - Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Texas Rangers
Odds: +25000
Nathaniel Lowe was one of the breakout stars of the 2022 season. The Rangers slugger slashed .302/.358/.492 with 27 homers and 76 RBI. His 143 wRC+ tied New York Mets star Pete Alonso for the third-best among qualified first basemen.
Despite that success, Lowe still seems like one of the most underrated players in the game heading into 2023. He’s a candidate to hit .300 with 30+ homers and a .900+ OPS while posting a low strikeout rate. That still might not be enough to keep up with the Aaron Judges of the world, but we’re talking dark horses here. Lowe falls into that category but I’ll say this now: do not be surprised if he gets some MVP votes.
National League MVP - Jeff McNeil, 2B, New York Mets
Odds: +20000
McNeil, the 2022 NL batting champ, actually finished 15th in MVP voting. The scrappy second baseman/outfielder earned his second All-Star nod and finished the season with an MLB-best .326 batting average. He posted a .836 OPS in 148 games, the most he’s played in a season thus far in his five-year career.
McNeil’s low home run total (nine) prevented him from earning a few more MVP votes. But if he can up the power in 2023 while contending for another batting title, he should be in the mix. It’s not like the power isn’t there. He showed it in 2019 with 23 homers while hitting .318 with a .916 OPS. If he produces similar numbers over the course of a full season, a top-five MVP finish is on the table.
American League Cy Young - Cristian Javier, RHP, Houston Astros
Odds: +2000
Alright, we’re getting less bold here, but Javier should still qualify as a dark horse with those odds. The point is to not pick one of the favorites like Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, etc. Funny thing is, I actually would rather bet on Javier than one of those guys.
The ink still hasn’t dried on the five-year, $64 million contract extension Javier signed this offseason. The 25-year-old is ready to prove he’s worth every penny, and then some. He already sort of did prove it with his 2022 performance for the reigning World Series champs.
Javier notched a .254 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 30 games (25 starts). He struck out 194 batters and walked only 52 in 148 2/3 innings of work. He started two combined no-hitters for the Astros, one on June 25 against the Yankees and one in the World Series against the Phillies.
With Justin Verlander on the Mets and Lance McCullers Jr. set to miss the start of the season, someone in that Astros rotation will need to step up. Could be Framber Valdez, but my money is on Javier to be the one earning Cy Young consideration come October.
National League Cy Young - Miles Mikolas, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Odds: +15000
Mikolas bounced back in a big way in 2022. Through 33 games, the 34-year-old veteran amassed a 3.29 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and was a workhorse with 202 1/3 innings under his belt. He earned his second All-Star selection as he provided flashbacks of the 2018 campaign in which he placed sixth in NL Cy Young voting.
Mikolas relies heavily on his plus command and ability to induce ground balls. He isn’t going to overpower anyone. There’s a reason he’s a long shot. But if I squint hard enough, I can see him surprising people with a season similar to Rick Porcello’s Cy Young campaign in 2016.
American League Rookie of the Year - Logan O’Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels
Odds: +1200
The sexy AL Rookie of the Year picks are Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson, Astros right-hander Hunter Brown, and Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas. After that trio, the guy being slept on is Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe.
The Angels acquired O’Hoppe from the Phillies at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for outfielder Brandon Marsh. It already looks like a wise move for Los Angeles as it appears O’Hoppe could be its catcher of the present and future. The 23-year-old should almost immediately make an impact with the MLB club in 2023.
O’Hoppe posted an .850 OPS across four minor-league seasons and threw out 26 percent of base stealers in 287 games. In 2022, hit belted 26 homers and had a .961 OPS in 104 games at Double-A. He’s ready.
National League Rookie of the Year - Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Odds: +1300
Frelick will debut in The Show this season and he’s ready to rake for the Brew Crew. The Boston College product isn’t going to set any home run records, but he’s one of the best pure hitters entering the big leagues. In 731 minor-league plate appearances, Frelick has posted a .331/.406/.476 slash line with 36 doubles, 13 homers and 36 steals.
Frelick’s Rookie of the Year candidacy will depend on how quickly he can earn a full-time outfield job for Milwaukee. It’ll take some time, but his undeniable hitting ability should win him the role at some point in 2023. When he does, look out.