10 MLB players ready to break out in 2023
Buy stock in these under-the-radar players now.
We’re rolling right along with preview content for the 2023 MLB season and some World Baseball Classic fun on the side. Today, I’ll highlight 10 players I expect to enjoy breakout seasons. I’m not much of a fantasy baseball guy but if you are, this might be a post you can get some value out of.
We’ll get to what qualifies as a “breakout season” in a moment, but first, here are a few other recent articles you may have missed:
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OK, so back to the breakout thing. What exactly is a “breakout season?” In my mind, a player who has already enjoyed some success can still have a “breakout” year. It doesn’t always have to be some unknown player who comes out of nowhere to shock the world. If I were writing a post on that, it would be headlined “unknown players who could come out of nowhere to shock the world.” Or something like that. Might have to workshop it a bit.
Simply put, a breakout season can come from any player who has yet to showcase their full potential. They may have shown flashes here and there, but there is still another level they’re capable of reaching. So here are 10 players I see making that leap and officially “breaking out” in 2023.
Daulton Varsho, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
You could argue Varsho already “broke out” in 2022, his first full MLB season. The 26-year-old established himself as arguably the best defensive outfielder in the game and showed promise at the plate with 27 homers and a .745 OPS. So, why is Varsho on this list if he already had his breakout season?
After being traded from Arizona to Toronto, Varsho is ready to take the next step offensively. His numbers should get a boost playing at Rogers Centre in a stacked Blue Jays lineup. Varsho’s promising year with the D’Backs may have gone somewhat unnoticed, but his production both in the outfield and at the plate will be impossible to ignore in 2023.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Another player who has already seen some success at the big-league level, Vaughn has a golden opportunity to reach another level this year. Jose Abreu’s departure will allow the 24-year-old to return to his natural position of first base. That should translate to more success at the plate as he’ll be able to avoid the wear and tear that comes with playing the outfield.
Vaughn hit 17 homers and posted a .750 OPS in 134 games last season. I think he’ll blow past those numbers in 2023 as long as he stays healthy.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B/DH, Kansas City Royals
Pasquantino is coming off a strong rookie season in which he notched 10 homers and a .832 OPS in 72 games. He also showed advanced plate discipline with more walks (35) than strikeouts (34).
The “Italian Nightmare” flew under the radar in a loaded rookie class that also included Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, Michael Harris II, Bobby Witt Jr., and Jeremy Pena, but he’ll officially put himself on the map in his first full MLB season. Don’t be surprised when he represents the Royals in the All-Star Game.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cruz has all the tools to be a star. He’s a highlight-reel machine with the ability to throw 100 mph from shortstop, hit balls at a 120+ mph exit velocity, and swipe bases. The 24-year-old hasn’t yet been able to put all of those tools together consistently, but there’s reason to believe 2023 is the year.
After hitting 17 homers and stealing 10 bases as a rookie, Cruz’s goal is to post a 30-30 season. It isn’t totally out of the realm of possibility. He’ll have to improve his plate discipline though as had 126 strikeouts to only 28 walks in 87 games last year. If the bat-to-ball skills take a step forward, the Oneil Cruz show is going to be a blast to watch.
Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
No pitchers clocked 100+ mph on the radar gun more than Greene did last season. The 23-year-old hits triple digits with ease and that’s a big reason why he was so hyped up heading into his rookie campaign.
Greene quickly learned that it takes more than velocity to dominate at the big-league level. He provided glimpses of his elite potential but finished the season with an underwhelming 5-13 record, 4.44 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.
Don’t let those numbers fool you. Greene has ace written all over him. As long as he stays healthy and confident in his ridiculous fastball, we could see him lead the league in strikeouts in 2023.
Nick Lodolo, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds may still be cellar dwellers in the National League Central, but they boast a young and exciting 1-2 punch in Greene and Lodolo.
Lodolo, 25, was outstanding down the stretch for Cincinnati last season as a rookie. The former top prospect posted a 2.48 ERA in September and his 1.7 Fangraphs WAR in the second half of the season matched Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara.
If that kind of production carries into 2023 — and there’s no reason to believe it won’t — it’ll be a huge breakout season for the young southpaw. There will be no shortage of Ks between Greene and Lodolo this year.
George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners had two of the top rookies in the league last season in Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. J-Rod stole most of the spotlight with his Rookie of the Year campaign, but Kirby was another major contributor to Seattle’s first playoff berth since 2001.
Kirby posted an 8-5 record with a 3.39 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 25 starts. The 25-year-old already is a master of command. He notched 133 strikeouts while walking only 22 batters over 130 innings.
Expect Kirby to take another step forward in his development in 2023. If he can build off what he accomplished as a rookie, the Mariners’ rotation will be a problem. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and Kirby can be a lethal mix.
Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins
Cabrera will hope his third year is the charm. The 24-year-old can expect a larger workload following the departure of Pablo Lopez. His stuff is undeniable, so the biggest challenge for him in 2023 will be staying off the injured list.
Cabrera also will look to gain more command over his devastating pitch mix, which includes a dominant changeup. It’s a “prove it” year for the young righty and I expect him to put the league on notice as long as he stays healthy.
Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros
Expectations are sky-high for Brown heading into his rookie year and for good reason. Through seven appearances in 2022 (two starts), the 24-year-old posted an 0.89 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings.
Brown will look to earn a spot in the Astros’ rotation to help soften the loss of Justin Verlander. But even if he pitches primarily out of the bullpen, he’ll be a difference-maker for Houston’s pitching staff.
Coincidentally, Brown and Verlander share an eerily similar delivery that has even led some to declare Brown the second coming of the three-time Cy Young award winner. I’m definitely not ready to go that far, but I do expect Brown to be in the Rookie of the Year conversation if he gets enough innings in 2023.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Colorado Rockies
Rodgers has teased Rockies fans with flashes of his star potential over the last two years. In 2022, that came on the defensive side as he ranked second among all fielders with 22 defensive runs saved and brought home his first Gold Glove award.
The next step for Rodgers is finding consistency at the plate. Colorado’s former top prospect has been a streaky hitter who struggles to get the ball off the ground. But every now and then, he’d do things like this that make you think he still isn’t even close to reaching his ceiling:
Rodgers can hit the ball hard and play a phenomenal second base. If he puts those two strengths together and gets the ball in the air a bit more in 2023, he’ll have the breakout year we’ve all been waiting for.