There are many reasons to love baseball, but high on my list is the sport’s unpredictability.
Here in March, none of us have the slightest clue what the MLB standings will look like come October. Nobody expected a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series, and although we can assume guys like Ronald Acuńa and Aaron Judge will once again produce MVP-caliber campaigns, there’s little doubt multiple players will come out of nowhere to earn end-of-season award votes.
That’s the beauty of it. Anything can happen.
So as we gear up for the new season, it’s an enjoyable exercise to identify the under-the-radar players who could make a significant impact. After naming 10 breakout candidates for the 2024 season, it’s time to get bold and identify some hark-horse award candidates.
Below are my sleeper picks. All betting odds listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook.
American League MVP - Adolis Garcia, OF, Texas Rangers
Odds: +5000
Garcia is somehow being undervalued after an incredible postseason in which he tallied a record 22 RBIs and was named ALCS MVP. The 31-year-old slugger was a hero for Texas in October, but he deserves more recognition for what he accomplished during the regular season.
In his second All-Star campaign, Garcia belted a career-high 39 homers with 107 RBIs. He also earned recognition for his stellar outfield defense with his first Gold Glove Award.
Garcia is only getting better each season and if he continues on this trajectory, he should be in the MVP conversation next fall. He’s an absolute steal at +5000.
National League MVP - Matt McLain, 2B/SS, Cincinnati Reds
Odds: +10000
Reminder: We’re trying to be bold here. Do I believe McLain will win the NL MVP over superstars like Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuńa, Freddie Freeman, or Shohei Ohtani? No. But among the “sleeper” candidates, McLain stands out as an intriguing pick.
McLain was overshadowed by his electrifying teammate Elly De La Cruz last year despite outperforming the fellow infielder. The UCLA product slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 stolen bases in 89 games for Cincinnati. Unfortunately, he missed time toward the end of the season with an oblique injury.
A full season of McLain will make him impossible to overlook. The 24-year-old has a nice blend of power and contact at the plate and is a burner on the basepaths. He also boasts defensive versatility with his ability to play both second base and shortstop at a high level.
If you’re looking for a lottery pick, McLain is a solid choice.
American League Cy Young - Cole Ragans, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Odds: +2000
Ragans was quietly brilliant for the lowly Royals in the second half of 2023. After being sent to KC from Texas in the Aroldis Chapman trade, the 26-year-old southpaw broke out with a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 12 starts with his new team.
Can Ragans produce ace-like numbers consistently throughout a 162-game season? That remains to be seen, but he certainly has the stuff to make it happen. He throws 100 mph with ease and pairs that fastball with a filthy changeup that had opposing hitters flailing to a .152 batting average last year. He also has a cutter, curveball and slider in his arsenal.
I expected Ragans to have longer odds since he still needs to prove it over a full season. The oddsmakers are respecting his talent though, which leads me to believe he’ll be the real deal and a serious Cy Young candidate in 2024.
National League Cy Young - Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins
Odds: +3000
Luzardo failed to live up to lofty expectations in Oakland but has found his groove over his last two years with Miami. The 26-year-old finally put together his first full season in 2023, pitching 178.2 innings and posting a 3.58 ERA with 208 strikeouts through 32 starts.
I believe we’ll see the southpaw make another leap in 2024. If he does, and he stays healthy for another full year, the Cy Young Award could be within reach. All it takes is one look at his strikeout rate to recognize he has the stuff to be a top pitcher in the league.
American League Rookie of the Year - Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox
Odds: +1500
There weren’t many reasons to tune in to Red Sox games in the second half of last season, but outfield prospect Wilyer Abreu was an exception.
Abreu, acquired from the Houston Astros as part of the 2022 Christian Vazquez trade, impressed both at the plate and in the field during his 28 games with Boston. He slashed .316/.388/.474 with six doubles, two homers, and 14 RBIs in 76 at-bats.
The 24-year-old Venezuelan could have a significant role with the big-league club in 2024. While Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday and Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter are the obvious favorites for the AL RotY award, Abreu offers intriguing value. If he picks up where he left off and plays a full season, he’ll at least be in the conversation come October.
National League Rookie of the Year - Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Odds: +1400
It won’t be easy for Harrison to stand out in the NL RotY race with Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cincinnati Reds third baseman Noelvi Marte, San Francisco Giants outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio leading a stacked NL rookie class. Still, the Giants southpaw oozes talent and is a perfect dark-horse candidate.
Harrison, 22, is the top-ranked left-handed pitching prospect in the game. He showcased his elite ability in his San Francisco debut, striking out 11 Reds hitters.
To have any shot at taking home the hardware, Harrison will have to improve his command. He walked 11 hitters and plunked four in seven MLB starts. His control was a real issue in Triple-A, where he walked 16.3 percent of the hitters he faced.
If that area of his game takes a step forward, Harrison could be a true breakout candidate in 2024. That may not be enough to overtake other future stars in the NL rookie class, but it could force him into the RotY debate by season’s end.
Who are your sleeper MLB award candidates? Leave them in the comments and don’t forget to subscribe to the newsletter below if you haven’t already!