2023 World Series Preview: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers
Everything you need to know heading into Friday's Game 1.
If you had Diamondbacks vs. Rangers as your 2023 World Series prediction back in March, please step up and claim your prize.
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No one? Not a single person? Ah, well then…
This matchup isn’t going to be a ratings bonanza. Both teams lost more than 100 games two years ago. Both are wild-card winners. Arizona wouldn’t have even clinched the postseason under the previous MLB playoff format. The DBacks opened the season at +6600 odds to win it all. The Rangers: +5000.
If you often find yourself rooting for the underdog, this is the series for you. If you believe the season should always end with the best team coming out on top, well, lucky for you the NBA season just started. Enjoy.
The biggest bummer is we won’t get to hear Phillies fans belt out “A-OK” until next season. Other than that, Diamondbacks vs. Rangers should be a blast. These clubs deserve to be here regardless of what Chris “Mad Dog” Russo or others might say. Expanded postseason or not, October baseball has always been about getting hot at the right time.
First pitch for Game 1 is set for Friday at 8:03 p.m. ET. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the series, plus a prediction.
Rangers have offensive edge
We don’t need advanced analytics to explain why the Rangers made it this far. They’ve been raking all postseason. Their sluggers are doing what they’ve been paid to do — slug.
Adolis Garcia is the hottest hitter in this series. The ALCS MVP went 10-for-28 with five homers, 15 RBIs (a postseason series record), and a 1.293 OPS against the Astros. He homered in four consecutive games.
Then there’s the half-billion-dollar middle-infield duo of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Seager has been overshadowed by Garcia, but the All-Star shortstop has done his part with a 1.127 OPS in these playoffs. Semien, on the other hand, is due. He has yet to hit one out of the ballpark and has posted a measly .507 OPS.
Unlike Arizona, Texas can put runs on the board in a hurry even when their stars are struggling. Rookie outfielder Evan Carter has risen to the occasion, catcher Mitch Garver can swing it, and the bottom of the lineup has stepped up with outfielder Leody Taveras and rookie third baseman Josh Jung coming through in clutch moments. There’s no soft spot in this lineup.
The DBacks advanced despite scoring the fewest runs among LCS clubs. That’s a testament to their pitching staff, of course, but they cannot win this series if their primary run producers go cold. That means they’ll lean on soon-to-be Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, who struggled in the NLCS before finally breaking through in Game 7. Second baseman Ketel Marte (.986 OPS) and catcher Gabriel Moreno (.852 OPS) have to stay hot, and someone like Alek Thomas or Geraldo Perdomo will need to make themselves a household name.
Even if all of that goes Arizona’s way, it still may not be enough to keep pace with Texas’ fearsome offense. That’s why this series will come down to two talented, albeit flawed, pitching staffs.
Total toss-up on the mound
These starting rotations are similar with strong 1-2 punches followed by question marks. For the DBacks that’s Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly with rookie Brandon Pfaadt as the No. 3. The Rangers have rolled with Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery, and Max Scherzer returned from injury during the ALCS.
Gallen hasn’t lived up to his ace label in this postseason. How he performs in Game 1 could set the tone for the rest of the series, because Merrill Kelly is capable of putting zeroes on the board in Game 2 and the bright lights of the playoffs haven’t phased to Pfaadt. A fast start is imperative for the DBacks. They can’t afford to let the Rangers take control, because it’s more than likely they won’t give it back.
It isn’t farfetched to say Eovaldi has become a postseason great. He already put himself into that conversation during his 2018 World Series run with Boston, but he has doubled down with Texas, posting a 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts (26 innings). Montgomery, acquired from the Cardinals at the deadline, has set himself up for a hefty payday in free agency with a 2.16 ERA in five outings (four starts).
It isn’t wise to bet against an all-time great like Scherzer, but the three-time Cy Young Award winner has looked like a shell of himself since returning from injury. He allowed seven runs in 6.2 innings between his two ALCS starts. He’ll have a short leash in the World Series and we could see more of Andrew Heaney or Dane Dunning — not that they’ve been much better.
The bullpen battle is where this gets interesting. Diamondbacks relievers have been lights out as of late. Kevin Ginkel has burst on the scene with 13 strikeouts, two walks, and ZERO runs allowed in nine innings of relief. Paul Sewald, acquired from the Mariners at the deadline, has been just as dominant with 11 strikeouts, one walk, and no runs given up in eight innings. Ryan Thompson has allowed three runs (boooo!) in 10.2 innings. So yeah, this group is locked in.
The Rangers ‘pen has had its ups and downs. Aroldis Chapman isn’t the dominant arm he once was but he’s done his part with just one run allowed in seven appearances. Josh Sborz is right there with him in the circle of trust with one earned run in eight outings. The closer, Jose Leclerc, blew up in Game 5 of the ALCS but has otherwise been trustworthy.
So who has the pitching edge, you ask? I have no idea. That’s the honest answer. This could go either way and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest.
Prediction
Sometimes we focus so much on the numbers that we fail to take one of the most important factors into account: experience. The Rangers have it, the Diamondbacks — other than Evan Longoria — don’t.
Corey Seager is a World Series MVP. Nathan Eovaldi is a postseason hero. Max Scherzer is a champion. Aroldis Chapman too, but if you don’t want to give him credit because of that whole Rajai Davis thing, I get it. Their manager, Bruce Bochy, has three World Series rings.
The point is that the Diamondbacks need to overcome being the less talented club AND a lack of experience on the big stage. Their best hitter is a rookie who has struggled throughout the postseason. Their best pitcher has, for the most part, melted under the bright lights. Their most experienced player, Longoria, has been a non-factor offensively.
In my mind, the only way Arizona continues to shock the world is if Texas’ offense runs out of gas. I don’t see that happening, so that makes my decision fairly easy.
Rangers in 5.
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