Predicting where the top MLB free agents will sign

Time to break out the crystal ball.

MLB free agency is underway and we’ve already seen a few big names get plucked off the market. Clayton Kershaw is back with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Edwin Diaz will return to the New York Mets, and Robert Suarez re-signed with the San Diego Padres.

Now, we wait for the dominoes to fall. Aaron Judge and Jacob deGrom are the premier free agents available but there are plenty more intriguing options where that came from. So where will they all end up? Let’s break out the crystal ball.

Starting pitchers

Jacob deGrom - Texas Rangers

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. The Rangers have been linked to deGrom and the longtime Mets ace reportedly has interest in anchoring Texas’ rotation. This would be a match made in heaven.

Justin Verlander - Houston Astros

Perhaps Verlander will want to take on a new challenge after earning his second World Series title in Houston, but it just makes too much sense for the Astros to retain him. He still has plenty left in the tank at his old age.

Carlos Rodon - New York Mets

With deGrom moving on, expect Steve Cohen to make a big splash to replace him. Rodon would certainly fit that bill.

Chris Bassitt - Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox need an ace. Bassitt probably doesn’t fit that description, but the Chaim Bloom-led front office probably isn’t going to spend what it takes to land a deGrom or a Rodon. Bassitt would be a solid consolation prize.

Kodai Senga - Chicago Cubs

The Japanese phenom already has been linked to several teams but I like the Cubs as a fit. Chicago needs pitching and it already landed the Japanese star of last offseason’s free agency in Seiya Suzuki. Why not both?

Tyler Anderson - Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers extended a qualifying offer to Anderson, so it seems likely he could accept that deal and test the free-agent waters again next year.

Nathan Eovaldi - Texas Rangers

Even after acquiring deGrom, the Rangers should still aggressively pursue pitching. Eovaldi would provide a much-needed boost in the middle of the rotation and if the money is right, it will be difficult for the right-hander to turn down a chance to play for his hometown team.

Noah Syndergaard - Toronto Blue Jays

This isn’t the same “Thor” we watched during his prime with the Mets, but Syndergaard can still help a team in need of pitching depth. The Blue Jays are one of those clubs, and they’re an attractive destination for veteran players looking to compete for a championship.

Andrew Heaney - Los Angeles Dodgers

Heaney pitched pretty well with L.A. last year so it would make sense for both sides if he returned on a short-term contract. Injuries have plagued him, but the Dodgers have the depth to replace him if necessary.

Sean Manaea - Kansas City Royals

Any team could use an affordable mid-rotation arm like Manaea, so predicting his destination is admittedly a dart throw. The Royals desperately need reliable starting pitching, so that seems like a solid fit.

Taijuan Walker - Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are on the upswing and it’s time for them to start adding talent to their pitching staff. Walker, like Manaea, is a nice option as a solid arm who shouldn’t break the bank.

Jameson Taillon - Minnesota Twins

Another team that needs to add pitching in order to contend next season, the Twins could use a guy like Taillon. Either of the two aforementioned guys above will do too.

Jose Quintana - Chicago White Sox

Quintana’s resurgence with the Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals last season was remarkable. The White Sox could look to reunite with their former southpaw as they build out their rotation.

Michael Wacha - Detroit Tigers

Wacha was a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox last season and while a return to Boston is a strong possibility, I predict he’ll land in Detroit. The Tigers’ signing of Eduardo Rodriguez last year was disastrous, so the need for pitching help is still there.

Corey Kluber - San Diego Padres

At this point in his career, Kluber will want to join a contender. The Padres made it to the NLDS last season and should be poised to make another run in 2023. Kluber still has what it takes to help a rotation and could be a missing piece for San Diego next year.

Relief pitchers

Kenley Jansen - Texas Rangers

Once again, the Rangers really need pitching and could flirt with a playoff berth if they nail this offseason. So on top of landing the No. 1 starter (deGrom), I think they’ll find a way to land the top reliever left on the market.

Adam Ottavino - Philadelphia Phillies

Ottavino was stellar for the Mets last season, so a return certainly is possible. But since I like to make things interesting, I have him going to Philly. The Phillies could use the bullpen help as they look to return to the World Series.

Taylor Rogers - Atlanta Braves

Rogers will be another one of the pricer options on the relief pitching market but the Braves should be willing to shell out the cash to improve their group.

Andrew Chafin - Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox bullpen needs an overhaul. They need to do much more than add Chafin to fix it entirely, but it would absolutely be a major step in the right direction.

Designated hitters

J.D. Martinez - Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland could use the pop in the middle of their lineup and while Martinez is on the decline, he’d still bring a significant boost.

Nelson Cruz - Colorado Rockies

Cruz probably only has another year or so left in the tank, so wrapping up his career hitting tanks at Coors Field sounds like a fitting way to go out.

Trey Mancini - Washington Nationals

With Cruz out, Mancini would be a solid DH replacement in D.C. After all, Mancini is quite familiar with the beltway.

Catchers

Willson Contreras - Houston Astros

With Vazquez gone, the Astros will make a big splash by signing the top catcher on the market. The rich get richer.

Christian Vazquez - St. Louis Cardinals

Yadier Molina retired, leaving the door open for Vazquez as a perfect replacement. The ex-Red Sox backstop would be an affordable option with plenty of postseason experience on his resume, including his second World Series title this year with Houston.

First basemen

Josh Bell - Houston Astros

Bell’s production fell off a cliff after he was traded from the Nationals to the Padres, but that shouldn’t dissuade teams from signing him. He’d fit in nicely with the reigning World Series champs with Trey Mancini moving on.

Jose Abreu - Minnesota Twins

I look at Abreu similarly to how I look at J.D. Martinez, though Abreu still brings some value as a defender. The 2020 AL MVP can still contribute some pop in the middle of a lineup and the Twins will need that if Carlos Correa signs elsewhere.

Anthony Rizzo - New York Yankees

Rizzo and the Yankees really are a perfect match with that short porch in right field. This one seems like a no-brainer.

Second basemen

Jean Segura - Chicago White Sox

The White Sox didn’t get much production out of the second base position last season. Segura is the top option on the market, so he’d immediately fix that problem.

Adam Frazier - Baltimore Orioles

It’s a shallow market for second basemen. It’s Segura, a giant gap, and then Frazier. The O’s seem like a sensible landing spot for the former All-Star as they look to build off their surprisingly successful campaign.

Shortstops

Xander Bogaerts - Philadelphia Phillies

Here’s where the fun starts. Along with Judge and deGrom, all eyes will be on this year’s shortstop class. Red Sox fans would love to see the front office pay Bogaerts to finish his career in Boston, but it just doesn’t seem likely they’ll outbid their counterparts. Especially if big spender Dave Dombrowski — formerly the Red Sox president of baseball ops — and the Phillies get involved.

Carlos Correa - Atlanta Braves

Swanson out, Correa in? The Braves will need to fill the void at shortstop if Swanson departs and Correa would be a great way to counter Bogaerts heading to a division rival.

Trea Turner - St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals fans reading this probably are drooling over the thought of Trea Turner joining their already-stacked infield. They’ll likely be in the mix for all of these shortstops, but Turner makes sense as a great all-around player who can also play some second if necessary.

Dansby Swanson - Chicago Cubs

The Cubs reportedly have reached out to the agents of all of the top shortstops, so they’re clearly serious about landing one. Swanson will be the most affordable option in the group.

Third basemen

Justin Turner - Los Angeles Dodgers

I just can’t see Turner finishing his career anywhere else.

Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Rays

Longoria is likely to hang ‘em up soon too. Wouldn’t a Rays reunion be a storybook ending to his illustrious career?

Brandon Drury - Los Angeles Angels

The Angels need infield help. Drury is coming off a career year and can do a little bit everything.

Outfielders

Aaron Judge - San Francisco Giants

Unless the Yankees step up to re-sign their prized slugger, it seems like a foregone conclusion he’ll land in the Bay. Judge, a Sacramento native, is the star outfielder the Giants have wanted for years. They’ve made it clear they won’t lose a bidding war for the American League home run champ.

Brandon Nimmo - New York Mets

Nimmo was outstanding for the Mets in 2022 and should be rewarded with a hefty free-agent contract. I doubt Steve Cohen wants to see him sign elsewhere, so a return to Queens seems imminent.

Mitch Haniger - Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox really need outfield depth behind Alex Verdugo and Kiké Hernandez. Until Chaim Bloom breaks the bank for a top free agent, I’m not going to predict he’ll sign a Judge or even a Nimmo. Haniger projects as the kind of player this front office would want: a talented albeit injury-prone player who can be had for a relatively cheap price.

Andrew Benintendi - New York Yankees

I still haven’t gotten used to the sight of Benny in pinstripes, but I have to admit the man looked pretty damn good in them last year. The Yankees need to add an outfielder and he seems like a solid bet to stay in the Bronx.

Joc Pederson - Toronto Blue Jays

Can’t you just picture “Joctober” with Pederson hitting bombs in front of a rowdy Rogers Centre crowd? I can.

Michael Conforto - Texas Rangers

Conforto didn’t sign in free agency last winter and missed all of the 2022 season due to injury. He’s an under-the-radar option this offseason and would add even more pop to a Rangers team that isn’t afraid to spend.