Predicting the 2024 NFL playoffs
The picks are in. Here's how I see the NFL postseason playing out.
Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Saturday with two intriguing AFC matchups.
First, it’ll be the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans facing off at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Miami Dolphins will take on the Kansas City Chiefs after that at 8:10 p.m. That matchup will be aired exclusively on Peacock, so plan accordingly.
Sunday’s slate features three games: Steelers-Bills (1 p.m.), Packers-Cowboys (4:30 p.m.), and Rams-Lions (8:15 p.m.). The Eagles and Buccaneers will wrap up the wild-card round on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m.).
In last year’s predictions, I went 5-for-6 in the wild-card round, 3-for-4 in the Divisional Round, and 1-for-2 in the conference championships. My Super Bowl prediction was Bills vs. Eagles with Buffalo winning it all. Of course, the Chiefs ended up making it out of the AFC and beating Philadelphia.
My Super Bowl prediction this year is a popular one, but there seems to be a high chance we’ll be surprised by which teams make it to the big game on Feb. 11.
Here are my round-by-round picks:
AFC Wild Card
No. 5 Cleveland Browns at No. 4 Houston Texans
This is the matchup I’m most looking forward to on wild-card weekend. It’s a total toss-up. The Browns’ elite defense (and Joe Flacco) against one of the most exciting up-and-coming quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud.
Either team making a deep run in this postseason would be a great story. My heart says to go with the rookie QB, but my head says to go with the more experienced signal-caller who can fall back on his great defense. It’ll be a close one.
Prediction: Browns 23, Texans 21
No. 6 Miami Dolphins at No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs
I’m not high on the Chiefs at all. That said, the Dolphins have just one win against a team with a winning record this season. I don’t think that changes against Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs team that thrives this time of year. Plus, this game is going to take place in extremely frigid temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium. None of this bodes well for Miami.
Prediction: Chiefs 28, Dolphins 17
No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is getting hot at the right time with five consecutive wins, including a victory over the Dolphins to steal the AFC East title. Pittsburgh has played well as of late too, but I don’t see it having enough offensive firepower to keep up with Josh Allen’s group. Star linebacker T.J. Watt also won’t play in this game due to a Grade 2 MCL sprain.
Prediction: Bills 30, Steelers 14
NFC Wild Card
No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 Dallas Cowboys
Get your popcorn ready, we’ve got a Mike McCarthy revenge game in Round 1. Green Bay has played well as of late, but I just can’t envision the Cowboys losing this game. CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas receiving core should tear up this Packers secondary and I don’t think Jordan Love is ready for the bright lights.
Prediction: Cowboys 35, Packers 20
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams at No. 3 Detroit Lions
Upset alert! We’re rolling with the Rams over the Lions in Jared Goff’s revenge game against Sean McVay and Co. Detroit just lost one of its main receiving targets, rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, to a devastating knee injury. L.A. has the offensive weaponry to attack the Lions’ secondary with Cooper Kupp and rookie phenom Puka Nacua. Should be a fun one.
Prediction: Rams 26, Lions 23
No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are considered underdogs by sportsbooks despite playing at home against an Eagles team that struggled mightily over the last few weeks of the season. Not to mention, quarterback Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown got banged up in the season finale vs. the Giants, and DeVonta Smith was already sidelined for that matchup. The Bucs are underdogs for a reason, but they’re capable of pulling off the upset and that’s what I’m expecting.
Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Eagles 20
AFC Divisional
No. 5 Cleveland Browns at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens
I want to pick the Browns, I really do, but I’m not going to get too cute here. I’m not picking against likely MVP Lamar Jackson and arguably the best team in the league.
I do think this matchup would be closer than people think. Jackson has struggled in the playoffs in his career and Cleveland already beat Baltimore in their November meeting. I just don’t have the guts to pick the underdog here.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Browns 20
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Is this the year Buffalo finally beats Kansas City in the playoffs? Josh Allen and Co. are 0-2 vs. Patrick Mahomes’s squad, falling in the 2021 AFC Championship and 2022 AFC Divisional Round.
This time, the matchup would take place at Highmark Stadium with the Bills playing their best football. I’m taking a red-hot Bills team over a Chiefs group that has gone through uncharacteristic offensive struggles all year due to their lackluster receiving core.
Prediction: Bills 35, Chiefs 28
NFC Divisional
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
The Week 2 matchup between these NFC West rivals was entertaining and came down to the wire. Niners star running back Christian McCaffrey lit up L.A.’s defense, but the Rams — without Cooper Kupp — got an explosive performance from rookie wideout Puka Nacua. The result was a 30-23 victory for San Francisco.
A couple of Matthew Stafford interceptions were the difference in the Rams’ loss. If he can avoid the mistakes this time around, we could be in for another nail-biter. I just can’t bring myself to bet against the 49ers here.
Prediction: 49ers 33, Rams 28
No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 2 Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys haven’t gotten past the Divisional Round since Jan. 7, 1996. That streak HAS to end this year, right?…. right?!?!?
It just feels like this Cowboys team is different. CeeDee Lamb is arguably the best wideout in the league. Dak Prescott was earning MVP consideration for a while. The Micah Parsons-led defense is rock-solid. They wouldn’t blow it against the Bucs of all teams….. RIGHT?!?!
Prediction: Cowboys 38, Buccaneers 17
AFC Championship
No. 2 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens
A scorching-hot Bills group vs. the NFL’s best team. Something’s got to give.
This is where I believe Buffalo’s hot streak comes to an end. Josh Allen has been mistake-prone all season long and that will be the difference in this matchup. The Bills would need to play a perfect game to outscore Jackson and the Ravens and I don’t see that happening.
Prediction: Ravens 30, Bills 20
NFC Championship
No. 2 Dallas Cowboys at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers annihilated the Cowboys when they faced off in October. Prescott threw three interceptions and amassed just 153 yards through the air. Brock Purdy torched Dallas for 252 yards and four TDs with no picks. McCaffrey actually had an off game, rushing for only 51 yards on 19 carries.
While I don’t foresee another blowout, I do believe the Niners will be victorious again. Their 42-10 win back in Week 5 was just way too convincing.
Prediction: 49ers 34, Cowboys 24
Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
This is probably the most popular Super Bowl matchup prediction and for good reason. It’s pretty clearly the top two teams in each conference and there’s little doubt it would make for the most entertaining showdown.
I went back and forth here, but my gut screamed at me to stick with San Francisco. It’s simply felt like the 49ers’ year all season long and while the Ravens certainly are capable of winning it all, something about Jackson’s postseason struggles and his inconsistency over the years tells me he’s going to come up short. Purdy isn’t exactly Joe Montana, but I trust him to manage the game by allowing his elite playmakers and defense to shine.
Prediction: 49ers 28, Ravens 24
What’s your Super Bowl prediction? Leave it in the comments, or let me know @justinjleger on Twitter/X.