Predicting the 2024 MLB postseason
October baseball is here.
After being treated to a thrilling Braves-Mets double-header that resulted in both NL East clubs clinching postseason spots - much to the chagrin of the Diamondbacks - it’s time for October baseball.
The 2024 MLB playoffs begin today with Tigers-Astros, Royals-Orioles, Mets-Brewers, and Braves-Padres starting their Wild Card rounds. You can check out the full postseason bracket below:
As usual, I’ll have in-depth recaps of all the action each Sunday throughout the playoffs. You can subscribe below to get them delivered to your email.
As we gear up for the Game 1s, here are my predictions for each round of the postseason.
American League Wild Card Series
No. 6 Detroit Tigers vs. No. 3 Houston Astros
My heart says Tigers, my brain says the team that has made it to the ALCS in seven consecutive postseasons.
It just wouldn’t feel right to bet against the Astros, especially after a season in which trailed by 10 games in the AL West and ended up winning it by 3.5 games. They enter the 2024 playoffs with a rock-solid trio of Framber Valdez, trade deadline addition Yusei Kikuchi, and Hunter Brown in the rotation. The bullpen is anchored by two dominant veterans in Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. It isn’t the best pitching staff Houston has had during its seven-year run, but it’s still one of the top groups in these playoffs.
Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker are the familiar faces in the Astros lineup. With a wealth of playoff experience under their belts, they will be a tough out for even the most talented teams this October.
The Tigers are a tremendous story. Game 1 starter Tarik Skubal just won the AL pitching triple crown (leading in wins, ERA, and strikeouts) and is the shoo-in for 2024 AL Cy Young. The starting rotation ranked fourth in MLB in ERA. I like Skubal’s chances of leading Detroit to a Game 1 win, but Houston will find a way to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Astros in 3
No. 5 Kansas City Royals vs. No. 4 Baltimore Orioles
I was worried about the O’s for a while. They were ice-cold for most of the second half, and those struggles could largely be attributed to injuries. Fortunately for Baltimore, they have their right-handed-hitting trio of Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, and Ramon Urias back in the lineup just in time for Game 1 vs. Royals lefty Cole Ragans.
Corbin Burnes vs. Ragans in Game 1 is a total toss-up, but I lean O’s now that their lineup is back to full strength and they’ve played to their potential as of late. I don’t think the Royals offense has enough firepower outside of superstar Bobby Witt Jr. to keep up with Baltimore’s balanced group.
Kansas City is on the upswing, but Baltimore’s time is now. The Orioles break out the brooms and cruise into the next round.
Prediction: Orioles in 2.
National League Wild Card Series
No. 6 New York Mets vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers
I bet against the Brewers every year and it never goes well for me. I did the same this season with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff out of the rotation. Now, former MVP outfielder Christian Yelich is out for the year after undergoing back surgery.
Although Milwaukee overcame those losses to win the National League Central, I can’t help but think their issues will catch up with them in the playoffs against tough competition. The Mets are a well-rounded club with one of the top offenses in the league, a strong rotation and bullpen, and above-average defense. They’ll be even scarier if slugger Pete Alonso suddenly snaps out of his slump.
The Brew Crew will make it interesting with their contact-hitting approach and peskiness on the basepaths. I just don’t think there’s enough thump in the lineup to keep up with a powerful Mets team that can score runs in a hurry.
Prediction: Mets in 3
No. 5 Atlanta Braves vs. No. 4 San Diego Padres
Chris Sale producing a Cy Young-caliber season only to be ruled out with an injury as soon as the playoffs start is a terrible omen for Atlanta. The Braves have been plagued by injuries all year, from Spencer Strider’s UCL tear to Ronald Acuńa’s torn ACL, Austin Riley’s broken hand, and now Sale’s back issues.
The Padres, on the other hand, have looked like a team of destiny as of late. They were an MLB-best 43-20 in the second half. They punched their ticket to the playoffs with a game-ending triple play vs. the Dodgers.
San Diego’s pitching staff is arguably the best of any team in these playoffs. The lineup is just as scary after leading the league in batting average and posting the fewest strikeouts of any club. This group seems to have everything going its way while the Braves seem to be trending in the opposite direction, and that’s why the Padres will make quick work of the Braves in the Wild Card round.
Prediction: Padres in 2
American League Division Series
No. 4 Baltimore Orioles vs. No. 1 New York Yankees
The Orioles didn’t win the AL East, but they were 8-5 against the Yankees this season. I believe they would have edged the Yankees out in the division had they stayed healthy in the second half. Nonetheless, they’ll have to fight their way through the Wild Card round to prove they’re better than the Bronx Bombers, and I think they’ll do just that.
With both clubs at full strength, Baltimore is the more balanced ballclub. I also look at Aaron Judge’s career postseason numbers and cringe. The most fearsome hitter in baseball has looked mediocre at best in October. Perhaps this is the year that changes now that he has Juan Soto to lean on.
Outside of that star duo, the Yankees offense leaves plenty to be desired. Gerrit Cole vs. Corbin Burnes will be a fun Game 1 but if New York can’t pull that one off, this series will be over rather quickly.
Prediction: Orioles in 4
No. 3 Houston Astros vs. No. 2 Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians are a solid sleeper pick for this year’s World Series title but in this case, they get a tough draw vs. the Astros in the ALDS. Is anyone really picking Cleveland to be the team that snaps Houston’s ALCS streak?
That’s no disrespect to the Guardians. They’ve been a blast to watch with first-year manager Stephen Vogt leading the charge and star third baseman Jose Ramirez enjoying a ridiculous 40-39-39 season. It’s just that in a battle between the Astros’ experienced lineup and the Guardians’ impressive pitching staff, I’d be foolish to pick against the group that has proven itself time and time again.
Prediction: Astros in 5
National League Division Series
No. 6 New York Mets vs. No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies
This would be a fun one. The Phillies are built to make another deep run but the Mets are no slouches. Philadelphia would not be able to afford to lose Game 1 with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound and give New York all the momentum.
That said, the Phillies established themselves as not only the best team in the NL East but perhaps the best in baseball during the regular season. I don’t see them being ousted this early.
Prediction: Phillies in 4
No. 4 San Diego Padres vs. No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers
This, to me, would be the most entertaining series of the postseason. As loaded as the Dodgers are, the Padres aren’t far behind. If any pitching staff can shut down this scary L.A. lineup, it’s San Diego’s.
But when I look at the murderers’ row of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Will Smith, my mind just refuses to believe they’ll be ousted in the first round. It could come down to the final inning, but we’re rolling with the Dodgers here.
Prediction: Dodgers in 5
American League Championship Series
No. 5 Houston Astros vs. No. 4 Baltimore Orioles
The Astros’ ALCS streak continues, but their 2024 playoff run comes to an end at the hands of the Orioles. Out with the old, in with the new.
There would be moments in this series where Houston’s experience - and Baltimore’s lack thereof - is noticeable. But in the end, talent will win out, and I believe the O’s at this point are the more talented group.
Prediction: Orioles in 7
National League Championship Series
No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies vs. No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers
No underdogs here. The top two NL teams battle it out for a trip to the World Series.
The Phillies have had their fair share of magical playoff moments in recent years, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them make another run at a title. They may be even better this time around than they were in those postseasons. Despite that, I can’t bring myself to pick against L.A. for the same reasons I mentioned in the NLDS section. Another instant classic of a series that ends in a Dodgers victory.
Prediction: Dodgers in 6
World Series
No. 4 Baltimore Orioles vs. No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers finally get over the hump and win it all, silencing those who have questioned the validity of their 2020 COVID-season title (Me… I am one of those people).
Baltimore will hold its own and make it a thrilling series, but inexperience will come back to bite them at some point. The O’s time will come - probably in the very near future - just not in 2024.
Prediction: Dodgers in 6
World Series MVP: Shohei Ohtani