MLB's biggest surprises and disappointments so far in 2023
You can never predict baseball.
Say what you will about baseball, but one thing you can never say about the sport is that it’s predictable. Every season is pure chaos. Most of us can throw our preseason predictions in the trash by June.
Well, we’re officially one week into June and there has been no shortage of surprises. Some of the teams we expected to be powerhouses have been hot garbage. Some of the players we put on a pedestal have been massive disappointments.
With about 40 percent of the 2023 MLB season in the books, here are the biggest surprises (pleasant ones!) and disappointments — both teams and players — so far.
Biggest Surprises
Tampa Bay Rays
We knew the Rays would be good, but not this good. They own MLB’s best record at 44-19, and the numbers prove that success is no fluke. Entering Wednesday, they lead the majors in home runs (105), stolen bases (82), and OPS (.818). They’re third in hits (565), second in runs (366), and third in team ERA (3.60).
Left-handed ace Shane McClanahan is the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young Award. Offseason addition Zach Eflin and rookie Taj Bradley have impressed, helping the rotation overcome injuries to Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. Tyler Glasnow looks like himself so far in his return from the injured list.
Yandy Diaz suddenly is a legitimate power threat who could lead the team in homers while competing for the AL batting title. Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, and Josh Lowe have stepped up to lead the offense, along with Luke Raley and Jose Siri who boast OPS right around .900
We’ll see whether Tampa can keep this up in a loaded AL East, which includes another surprise club.
Baltimore Orioles
Admittedly, I expected some regression from the Orioles after their surprisingly successful 2022 campaign. Despite their promising young talent, I didn’t think they had enough pitching to compete in the division. Their biggest additions to the staff in the offseason were Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson.
Welp, I was dead wrong.
The O’s are second in the AL East at 37-23. They have the eighth-best run differential (+29) in MLB. Gibson has turned out to be a rock-solid addition to the rotation and Tyler Wells has come out of nowhere to be an ace.
Last year’s AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Adley Rutschman has carried the load on offense with a .833 OPS. Cedric Mullins was in the midst of a stellar season before going on the IL with a groin injury. Austin Hays is hitting .305 with a .836 OPS.
I still sense a dropoff coming for Baltimore at some point, but what we’ve seen so far in the season has been impressive. If they’re still in the mix by the trade deadline, they should make a move for a No. 1 starter.
Texas Rangers
Even after they overhauled their starting rotation, the Rangers entered the 2023 season as an afterthought compared to the reigning champion Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners. They’ve certainly earned our attention with their performance so far.
Texas sits atop the AL West (40-20) while leading MLB in hits (586), runs (386), and run differential (+155). They’re second in OPS (.808) and fourth in team ERA (3.62).
Offseason signing Nathan Eovaldi is right there with McClanahan as an early AL Cy Young candidate. The rest of the rotation — Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Martin Perez, and Dane Dunning — have stepped up with Jacob deGrom on the injured list. They will need to continue to do so with deGrom set to undergo Tommy John surgery.
Third baseman Josh Jung has won consecutive AL Rookie of the Month awards. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager have been worth every penny of their contracts, which total about a half-billion dollars. Adolis Garcia is an RBI machine and Jonah Heim has made a name for himself as one of the best catchers in baseball.
The Mariners and Angels appear to be battling for third place at this point. But can the Rangers hold off the Astros for 162 games? If they keep playing like this, I don’t see why not.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates added some veterans to the clubhouse during the offseason. Still, that wasn’t enough to keep them out of the bottom five in most preseason power rankings.
Sixty games later, they’re a half-game behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central with a 32-28 record and don’t appear to be losing steam. The pitching staff has overcome a lackluster lineup that has been without Oneil Cruz. Mitch Keller has developed into an ace and David Bednar is the best closer in the entire league.
The NL Central is still extremely tight with only 8.5 games separating the Brewers and the last-place St. Louis Cardinals. I still expect the division to look more like we expected it to by the end of the year. But for now, Pittsburgh’s success is a great story.
Arizona Diamondbacks
After all that preseason Padres hype, it’s the Diamondbacks who are giving the Dodgers a run for their money atop the NL West. They currently have a one-game lead over L.A. with a 36-25 record.
This is one team I expected to exceed expectations, though I can’t say I expected them to be better than San Diego and compete for a division title. While they’re not outstanding in any particular category, they’re a well-rounded club with a core group of exciting players.
Corbin Carroll, as anticipated, is the star of the lineup and a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year honors. Lourdes Gurriel, acquired from Toronto as part of the Gabriel Moreno/Daulton Varsho deal, has a .909 OPS. Ketel Marte is enjoying a bounce-back campaign and Christian Walker continues to hit bombs.
Zac Gallen is duplicating his 2022 efforts as the ace of the staff and an NL Cy Young contender. Merrill Kelly is right there with him to form a dominant 1-2 punch.
I still see the Dodgers pulling away from the pack at some point, but the Diamondbacks should be in the mix for a playoff spot come October.
Masataka Yoshida, OF, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox wasted no time signing Yoshida to a five-year, $90 million contract once the Japanese star posted in December. According to ESPN, talent evaluators across the league scoffed at Yoshida receiving such a lucrative deal on the open market.
But through the first month and a half of the season, Yoshida has been worth every penny. In fact, he has carried the Red Sox offense. The 29-year-old leads his team in hits (66), batting average (.319), on-base percentage (.393), and slugging percentage (.502). He’s second in RBIs (33).
As of Wednesday, Yoshida is second in the AL and fifth in MLB in batting average. That preseason Yoshida batting title prediction is looking pretty solid right about now.
LaMonte Wade Jr., OF, San Francisco Giants
Wade showed flashes of his talent during the 2021 season but came back down to earth in 2022. So far this year, he has been the Giants’ most productive player.
He currently leads the team with a .429 OBP and a .909 OPS. He’s second in slugging (.480) and third in hits (51), batting average (.285), and homers (8). His OPS ranks ninth in the majors.
An All-Star nod appears to be in Wade’s future.
Bryce Elder, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Elder showed promise during his brief stint in the majors last season, but no one could have predicted what he has accomplished so far in 2023. The 24-year-old right-hander has anchored the Braves starting rotation with Max Fried injured, posting a 4-0 record with an NL-best 2.26 ERA through 12 starts.
There always seems to be that one pitcher who comes out of nowhere to join the Cy Young race. This year, Elder is that guy.
Biggest Disappointments
San Diego Padres
The Padres may have been the most popular World Series pick entering the 2023 season, and rightfully so. They already were loaded with talent when they made it to the NLCS last year, then they went out and added star shortstop Xander Bogaerts to the mix during the offseason.
Things have not gone as planned. While there’s still time to turn things around, it’s panic time in San Diego as the club is 28-33 and fighting to stay out of last place in the NL West standings.
Despite an embarrassment of riches, they rank dead-last in the majors in batting average (.220) and in the bottom half of the league in every other significant offensive category The pitching staff has mostly held up its end of the bargain (3.76 ERA, 7th in MLB) but the offense’s struggles have been critical.
The Padres sit eight games behind the division-leading Diamondbacks with a 28-33 record.
Seattle Mariners
One of the most hyped-up clubs during the winter, the Mariners have been the definition of mediocre so far in 2023. The Rangers and Astros are running away as the top teams in the AL West while Seattle sits 10 games behind Texas with a 30-30 record.
Last season’s AL Rookie of the Year, Julio Rodriguez, is in the midst of a slight sophomore slump. The 22-year-old is hitting just .246 with a .746 OPS in 58 games. He isn’t necessarily the problem, but his cooling off is one of several reasons the Mariners have been unable to duplicate their 2022 magic thus far.
As a team, the Mariners have the sixth-lowest OPS (.684) in the league. Like the Padres, pitching hasn’t been the issue as the starting rotation ranks among the best in baseball.
St. Louis Cardinals
If you told me before this season that the Pirates would be right there at the top of the NL Central while the Cardinals sit in last place with a 25-37 record, I would’ve slapped you. But that’s the reality we’re living in right now in June.
St. Louis continues to freefall as it has lost eight of its last 10 games. Pitching has been the primary concern. Opposing teams are hitting .272 (third-highest average in MLB) against Cardinals pitchers, who collectively have the fourth-highest WHIP (1.45) in the league.
Offensively, Nolan Gorman and Paul Goldschmidt have been bright spots. Guys like Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras, however, need to get it going. If this team doesn’t snap out of its skid soon, a trade deadline firesale could be incoming.
Carlos Correa, SS, Minnesota Twins
Perhaps the Giants and Mets dodged a bullet by having their Correa deals fall through in the offseason. Because so far in 2023, Correa has been abysmal.
The two-time All-Star shortstop has given the Twins virtually nothing offensively. Through 51 games, he’s slashing just .208/.298/.375 with six homers and 24 RBIs.
That is not what Minnesota expected when it overlooked Correa’s medical issues to sign him to a six-year, $200M deal last winter.
Jose Abreu, 1B, Houston Astros
As disappointing as Correa has been, he has not been the worst signing of the offseason thus far. That title belongs to the Astros’ signing of veteran first baseman Jose Abreu, who has been useless to this point in the campaign.
Abreu has only ONE home run through 59 games. We knew his power was dropping off last season, but ONE homer? ONE?!?
The 36-year-old is also hitting just .211 with a .532 OPS. At this point, it might be safe to say he’s simply cooked.
Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Imagine picking Manoah to win the 2023 AL Cy Young Award? Ha! You’d have to be some kind of moron to do such a stupid thing like that!
An All-Star in 2022, Manoah has been absolutely hammered by opposing hitters this season. The 25-year-old is 1-7 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 13 appearances.
The Blue Jays finally said enough is enough and demoted Manoah on Tuesday. No, not to Triple-A or even Double-A. They sent Manoah to the FLORIDA COMPLEX LEAGUE. ROOKIE BALL.
Life comes at you fast.
Trea Turner, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Turner went from being Captain America at the World Baseball Classic to struggling mightily in his debut season with the Phillies.
The star shortstop, who inked an 11-year, $300M deal during the offseason, hasn’t found his groove at the plate yet through 60 games. He’s slashing .240/.283/.394 with seven homers.
Perhaps he’s starting to turn things around as two of those homers came in a four-hit performance Monday vs. the Tigers. Philadelphia will hope that’s the case, because so far that $300M investment hasn’t paid dividends.
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