2023 MLB Postseason Predictions
A round-by-round preview of the 2023 playoffs with picks for each matchup.
The 2023 MLB regular season is in the books. We’re on to October baseball, and the stage is set for another incredible postseason.
The Wild Card round begins Tuesday. A friendly reminder that it’s a best-out-of-three series, not one do-or-die game like it was from 2012-19. It’ll be Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays in the American League, and Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies in the National League.
The winner of Blue Jays-Twins will take on the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros in the American League Division Series. The Rangers-Rays winner will take on the Baltimore Orioles.
The Diamondbacks and Brewers will compete for a chance to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series. The winner of Marlins-Phillies will advance to challenge the top-seeded Atlanta Braves.
Now that the playoff field is set, it’s time to make some predictions. Let’s break out the crystal ball.
American League Wild Card Series
#6 Toronto Blue Jays vs. #3 Minnesota Twins
In my preseason predictions, I picked the Blue Jays to represent the AL in the World Series. I was high on their revamped rotation led by Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios. Manoah’s unexpected downfall was a less-than-ideal development for Toronto, but the group still finished fifth in quality starts (70) and fourth in team ERA (3.79).
The Blue Jays’ highly-touted offense underperformed compared to expectations with the 14th-most runs scored (746) and a team OPS (.746) that ranked 11th. That said, this looks like a club that’s heating up at the plate at the perfect time. There are enough big bats in this lineup — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Brandon Belt, George Springer to name a few — to pummel Minnesota and compete with Houston in the ALDS.
As for the Twins, they’re a solid club that benefitted from being in by far the worst division in baseball. They were led by veteran right-hander Sonny Gray, who enjoyed possibly the best season of his 11-year MLB career. Fellow righty Pablo Lopez, acquired in the Luis Arraez trade with the Marlins, also enjoyed a stellar campaign.
It’s impressive that Minnesota had such a successful regular season with the oft-injured Byron Buxton struggling mightily and Carlos Correa having one of the worst offensive seasons of his career. The supporting cast has picked up the slack. However, I think the Twins’ lack of star power will be the difference in this matchup. Minnesota enters this postseason having not won a playoff game since 2004, and that streak will continue.
Pick: Blue Jays in 2.
#5 Texas Rangers vs. #4 Tampa Bay Rays
The Rangers squeaked into the postseason despite losing ace Jacob deGrom early in the season, losing prized trade deadline addition Max Scherzer in mid-September, and missing offseason acquisition Nathan Eovaldi for two months due to injury.
That’s because this Texas offense is lethal. It ranked third in runs scored (881) and OPS (.790) this season with help from star shortstop Corey Seager, second baseman Marcus Semien, outfielder Adolis Garcia, and rookie third baseman Josh Jung. Each finished the year with more than 20 homers.
That potent offense will be necessary against a Rays club that can make the league’s best lineups look ordinary. And that’s without left-handed ace Shane McClanahan or Drew Rasmussen, both of whom suffered season-ending elbow injuries. Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin have done a nice job anchoring the rotation in their absence. But if this series goes to Game 3, it could get dicey. Manager Kevin Cash will get creative.
While Tampa is known for its pitching staff, don’t sleep on its offense even without shortstop Wander Franco and second baseman Brandon Lowe. Yandy Diaz just won the batting title, Randy Arozarena has a knack for coming through in clutch moments, and Jose Siri adds some power to the bottom of the lineup. This Rays offense finished fourth in runs scored (860) and OPS (.776).
Moral of the story: both offenses can put runs on the board in a hurry, so let the best pitching staff win. My money is on that being Tampa Bay.
Pick: Rays in 3
National League Wild Card Series
#6 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. #3 Milwaukee Brewers
The Diamondbacks are on the upswing, but they barely snuck into the postseason thanks to the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds’ late-season struggles. They face an uphill battle against a Brewers pitching staff that ranked as the best in the majors for 2023.
Arizona’s fight to clinch a playoff berth cost them a chance to start ace Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly in Game 1. Instead, it’ll be rookie Brandon Pfaadt taking the hill on the road against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes in what seems like a must-win series opener for the DBacks.
After Burnes, Milwaukee has two co-aces for Games 2 and 3 in Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. It also has the advantage of a stellar bullpen headlined by Devin Williams.
This isn’t to say the Diamondbacks don’t have star power of their own. Rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll is coming off a historic campaign, second baseman Ketel Marte enjoyed a bounce-back year, Christian Walker supplied 33 homers and 103 RBIs, and Lourdes Gurriel proved to be an outstanding offseason acquisition. I just don’t see it being enough to overpower the Brewers’ pitching.
Arizona should steal one of the Gallen or Kelly games, but the NL Central champs will take care of business.
Pick: Brewers in 3
#5 Miami Marlins vs. #4 Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have unfinished business as they look to make their second consecutive World Series appearance. This time, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them make a deep postseason run.
Philly’s offense was among the best in the league despite a stunningly slow start from prized offseason addition Trea Turner. But over the last couple of months, Turner has snapped out of his funk and been one of the hottest hitters in the game. Expect an electrifying atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park if Turner comes through with some big moments in these playoffs.
The Phillies’ lineup is full of star power with Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber as the headliners alongside Turner. Don’t sleep on Alec Bohm, either. He’s found his groove since that infamous “I hate this place” incident.
Their pitching staff is led by the formidable 1-2 punch of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. As for the bullpen, it's much improved over last year as it posted the seventh-best ERA in baseball (3.56).
All of this is to say, the underdog Marlins have their work cut out for them. With reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara out for the year, they’ll rely on left-handers Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett in Games 1 and 2. That’s notable because the Phillies love hitting against lefties.
Miami ranked 26th in the league in runs scored with 668 and 19th in team OPS (.722). While those numbers aren’t flattering, there are some legitimate threats in the lineup including trade deadline additions Jake Burger and Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Jorge Soler.
If the Marlins had a healthy, NL Cy Young version of Alcantara in this series, I might have taken them to pull off the upset. That isn’t the case, though, so I’m rolling with the heavy favorites.
Pick: Phillies in 2
American League Division Series
#6 Toronto Blue Jays vs. #2 Houston Astros
There’s just something about the Astros in October, and it feels foolish to bet against them this early in the tournament. Especially against a Blue Jays club that has gone through some concerning power outages at the plate all season long.
The Astros’ core of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker is. a group no club wants to go up against this time of year. Not to mention reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander is back to anchor the rotation and form a rock-solid 1-2 punch with Framber Valdez. They’ll need Cristian Javier to return to his 2022 postseason form, and rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France to step up.
This would be a fun, competitive series. But in the end, Houston’s wealth of playoff experience gives them a huge advantage, and it’ll result in their seventh consecutive ALCS appearance.
Pick: Astros in 4
#4 Tampa Bay Rays vs. #1 Baltimore Orioles
The AL East foes split their four-game September set and I expect a similar type of series if they meet in the playoffs. I’d probably take the Rays if McClanahan, Rasmussen, and Lowe were healthy (and if Franco wasn’t an alleged creep), but that isn’t the case.
The Orioles are loaded from top to bottom with likely Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson, 2022 RotY runner-up Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Ryan O’Hearn as the heart of the lineup. Rookies Jordan Westburg and Heston Kjerstad will have a chance to make their presence felt as well after getting called up to The Show this year.
Pitching was expected to be Baltimore’s downfall in 2023 after the front office acquired Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin and called it an offseason. Surprisingly, the group played a huge role in the team’s success, especially Kyle Bradish. The right-hander stepped up as the ace and looked like a Cy Young candidate toward the end of the year. Unfortunately, fellow Cy Young contender and shutdown closer Felix Bautista had his season cut short due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. That’s a brutal blow.
Nonetheless, the young O’s win in an instant classic against Tampa and keep their remarkable season alive.
Pick: Orioles in 5
National League Division Series
#3 Milwaukee Brewers vs. #2 Los Angeles Dodgers
I went back and forth on this one despite the Dodgers being a powerhouse. This Brewers pitching staff deserves respect even against the best offenses in the game. Ultimately, I just couldn’t bet against a loaded L.A. team that quieted so many people who picked the Padres to overtake them in the NL West.
The Dodgers’ fearsome lineup is led by perennial MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Will Smith remains arguably the best hitting catcher in the game, and J.D. Martinez is back to looking like the DH that helped Boston to a championship in 2018.
The pitching staff is where I start to worry about L.A. making a deep run. Clayton Kershaw is still a bonafide ace in the late stage of his career, but his postseason struggles are well documented. Walker Buehler is out due to Tommy John recovery and Julio Urias won’t see the field due to some serious legal issues. So after Kershaw, L.A. will lean on rookie right-hander Bobby Miller and inconsistent veteran Lance Lynn. Not ideal.
If the Brewers offense can hold up its end of the bargain, this will be a much better series than many expect. But I’m taking the Dodgers in a close one as their offense will find a way to break through against Milwaukee’s scary pitching staff.
Pick: Dodgers in 5
#4 Philadelphia Phillies vs. #1 Atlanta Braves
The Braves enter the postseason as favorites to win it all, and it’s easy to see why. Their regular season was historic. With 307 team home runs, they broke the previous NL team record of 279 set by the Dodgers in 2019 and tied MLB’s single-season homer record. Seven Braves players hit 20 or more home runs, and five hit more than 30. They set an MLB record for highest team slugging percentage at .501.
Likely 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuńa Jr. became the first MLB player to hit 40 homers and steal 70 bases. Matt Olson set a Braves record with his MLB-best 54 homers and set the franchise’s RBI record with 139. Right-handed ace Spencer Strider set the club’s single-season strikeout record with 281.
So… yeah, good luck to Philly.
I do believe the Phillies will put up a good fight against their NL East rival. Their offense is one of the few in the league capable of keeping up with Atlanta’s. It just won’t be able to do so for a full playoff series.
Pick: Braves in 4
American League Championship Series
#2 Houston Astros vs. #1 Baltimore Orioles
The grizzled veterans with years of postseason experience vs. the up-and-coming stars with zero postseason experience. Although the Orioles were the better team all year, I can’t pick against the experienced side. Houston has the edge, but Baltimore will be back.
Pick: Astros in 7
National League Championship Series
#2 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. #1 Atlanta Braves
The postseason series everyone wants to see. The two best teams in the league going at it in a best-of-seven.
This is where missing Buehler and Urias will be too much for the Dodgers to overcome. Lacking pitching depth against one of the best offenses in MLB history is a recipe for disaster. Plenty of runs will be scored between the two clubs, but most will come courtesy of Atlanta’s bats.
Pick: Braves in 6
World Series
#2 Houston Astros vs. #1 Atlanta Braves
The Astros actually swept the Braves in a three-game series back in April. That doesn’t really mean much anymore, but if there’s any team in this postseason field capable of upsetting the World Series favorites, I think it’s the reigning champs. They cannot be underestimated given all of their playoff success over the last decade.
Repeating is really difficult, though. Especially against a team as stacked as Atlanta. As much as I value experience in the MLB postseason, I think talent ultimately wins out. The Braves will defeat the Astros in the World Series for the second time in three years.
Pick: Braves in 6