I found MLB predictions I wrote as a 12-year-old in 2006 - let's see how I did
Taking a time machine to the 2006 MLB season.
When I tell the story of how I turned sports writing into a career, it starts with the days I wasted all of my parents’ printer paper on baseball predictions. Young Justin Leger loved nothing more than breaking out the crystal ball for an MLB season. Some things never change.
I recently rediscovered a batch of predictions I made at 12 years old back on June 27, 2006 (why I waited until that date, who knows?…) and it helped me remember why I worked so hard to get into this field. Reading some of the names of players from that ‘06 season took me back to a place in time when it truly was all about the love for the game. I wasn’t writing about baseball because I wanted to make a career out of it, I was writing about baseball because it was a hobby that brought me immense joy.
I started flipping through the predictions, which I hadn’t laid eyes on for at least a decade, and immediately knew I had to make a blog post out of them. Not only would it be great to poke fun at myself for my writing 18 years ago, but these pages are overloaded with nostalgia that should appeal to any longtime baseball nerd like me.
Below, you’ll see photos of each page followed by 30-year-old Justin’s reactions to 12-year-old Justin’s analysis. I also included the results from the 2006 MLB season and how they compared with 12-year-old Justin’s predictions. The whole exercise was a lot of fun.
Let’s get into it…
Before we get into the predictions, I just have to acknowledge the title. “Baseball Predictions of 2006"? Was “2006 MLB season predictions” copyrighted or something? Weird.
Anyway, here’s the fun stuff… starting with the regular-season standings and World Series predictions:
We’ll get to how the 2006 MLB season results compared with my predictions in a second. For now, let’s pick apart 12-year-old me’s writing.
Right off the bat, the “REASONS” why the Red Sox would win the AL East gave me a good laugh. Going player by player in the lineup with one generic sentence about them hitting being a contact or power hitter is hilarious. "With Kevin Youkilis as a combination of contact and a power hitter as their lead-off batter. Mark Loretta as a great contact hitter batting second.” That alone deserves a Pulitzer Prize.
The other part that gave me a good chuckle: “The only thing that may stop the Mets from winning the World Series is their bullpen, but the Mets have plenty of time to deal with that.” You know what they say, "Time heals all bullpens.” Just wait it out!
OK, now for the MVP award predictions…
No surprise to see that David Ortiz, who never won an MVP award in his career, topped my list for the AL. As a lifelong Red Sox fan, he was my favorite player at the time. While there definitely was some bias here, it’s worth noting he finished third in the voting. No designated hitter has ever won the MVP award to this day.
Grady Sizemore was my favorite non-Red Sox player, and he was a stud until injuries derailed his career. “He has the potential to win MVP, which is the reason I put him on this list.” Man… another hot take from 12-year-old Justin.
The rest of the list is pretty straightforward, though Maggilo Ordonez and Vernon Wells were sleepers. They ended up tying for 22nd in the AL MVP vote. Again, we’ll get to the winners later…
Now, Cy Young picks…
Nope, no Red Sox bias at all! Nothing to see here!
Neither Curt Schilling nor Josh Beckett earned Cy Young votes. I apparently was horrible at evaluating pitching talent because neither of my picks, Contreras or Glavine (my Billerica bias creeping in too…) earned any votes.
Also, that “Definately” misspelling on the Jason Schmidt section is driving me nuts. Really could have used spell check back then.
Next up, Rookie of the Year predictions for what turned out to be an insanely successful rookie class…
Seriously, just look at some of the names on that list. I remember being obsessed with Jonathan Papelbon (not Red Sox bias this time… he was just ridiculously good) and Justin Verlander back then. Throw in Francisco Liriano, Curtis Granderson, Jon Lester, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Cain, and Prince Fielder… my goodness!
My picks were Verlander in the AL and Ramirez in the NL… we’ll see how I did in a moment.
Here were all of my predictions including full division standings, Wild Card winners, Comeback Players of the Year, home run leaders, pitching wins leaders (dumb stat, 12-year-old Justin… you’ll learn someday!), stolen bases leaders, batting champs, Managers of the Year, and best team records.
Give 12-year-old Justin some credit, he was thorough.
And here’s how those predictions compared to the end-of-season results:
AL East Prediction: Red Sox — Result: Yankees
Boston didn’t even come close, finishing 11 games behind its archrival and missing the postseason. No doubt this disappointed 12-year-old Justin, but the 2007 World Series results would make up for it…
AL Central Prediction: White Sox — Result: Twins
The Twins edged out the Tigers by one game and finished six games ahead of the reigning champion White Sox. They were beat by the A’s in the opening round of the postseason.
AL West Prediction: A’s — Result: A’s
Nailed it! Oakland beat out the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim by four games and went on to fall to the Tigers in the ALCS.
NL East Prediction: Mets — Result: Mets
New York dominated the division, beating the second-place Phillies by 12 games. The season still ended in disappointment as the Mets fell to the Cardinals in the NLCS.
NL Central Prediction: Cardinals — Result: Cardinals
St. Louis beat Houston by 1.5 games and went on to have a pretty decent postseason…
NL West Prediction: Dodgers — Result: Padres
Both teams finished 88-74 but San Diego won the division with the tiebreaker. Neither team made it past the opening round of the playoffs.
Wild Card Predictions: Tigers and Reds — Result: Tigers and Dodgers
World Series Matchup and Prediction: White Sox vs. Mets, Mets win — Result: Tigers vs. Cardinals, Cardinals win
It wasn’t the worst prediction. One of the AL Central powerhouses made it, and the Mets were beat by the eventual champs in the NLCS.
AL MVP Prediction: David Ortiz (runner-up, Vernon Wells) — Result: Justin Morneau (runner-up, Derek Jeter)
Ortiz finished third for the award and Wells was tied for 22nd. Hey, give me some credit for including Morneau in the “candidates” category.
NL MVP Prediction: Albert Pujols (runner-up, David Wright — Result: Ryan Howard (runner-up, Albert Pujols)
Another solid pick, but still the wrong one. Wright ended up finishing ninth.
AL Cy Young Prediction: Jose Contreras (runner-up, Johan Santana) — Result: Johan Santana (runner-up, Chien-Ming Wang)
No chance 12-year-old Justin saw the Chien-Ming Wang Train coming. Contereras’ Cy Young campaign fell off in the second half. Santana as the runner-up is one positive takeaway from this prediction.
NL Cy Young Prediction: Tom Glavine (runner-up, Pedro Martinez) — Result: Brandon Webb (runner-up, Trevor Hoffman)
This was one was rough. Glavine and Martinez both finished without a vote. There was some Mets bias back then too as they were my favorite NL team at the time.
Comeback Player of the Year Predictions: Curt Schilling and Nomar Garciaparra — Result: Jim Thome and Nomar Garciaparra
Hey, if you hit .500, you’re the greatest player of all time.
Home Run Leader Predictions: Jim Thome and Albert Pujols — Result: Ryan Howard and David Ortiz
Howard and Ortiz finished with 58 and 54, respectively. Thome and Pujols had 42 and 49.
Pitching Wins Leader Predictions: Jose Contreras and Tom Glavine — Result: Johan Santana/Chien Ming Wang and six NL pitchers tied with 16
Contreras had 13 and Glavine finished with 15. Santana and Wang had 19 apiece. Aaron Harang, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Brandon Webb, and Carlos Zambrano tied with 16.
Stolen Base Leader Predictions: Chone Figgins and Jose Reyes — Result: Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes
Figgins was right behind Crawford (58) in the AL with 52.
Batting Champ Predictions: Ichiro Suzuki and Albert Pujols — Result: Joe Mauer and Freddy Sanchez
Pujols finished third in the NL with a .331 average. Ichiro didn’t finish top 10 in the majors.
AL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Justin Verlander (runner-up, Jonathan Papelbon) — Result: Justin Verlander (runner-up, Jonathan Papelbon)
Like I said, I loved this rookie class.
NL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Hanley Ramirez (runner-up, Ryan Zimmerman) — Result: Hanley Ramirez (runner-up, Ryan Zimmerman)
Too easy.
Managers of the Year Prediction: Jim Leyland and Willie Randolph — Result: Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi
Leyland edged out Ron Gardenhire of the Twins. Randolph finished second to Girardi, who helped the Marlins contend for a playoff spot in a rebuilding year.
Best Records Prediction: White Sox and Mets — Result: Yankees and Mets
We’ll take it.